San Antonio Spurs vs Houston Rockets

 

82 games have been completed; you have a long body of data to work off. The time is now that you put into action not only what you have learnt about your team but what you have learnt about your opponent. This is what your whole season has been leading up to. Do you take your opportunities, or do you squander them?

 

Houston: Managed by Vitticus his love of Jokic is rivalled by no other with their star player. He has a great assortment of role players centered around his franchise big man Nikola Jokic, with 2 young guns on the cusp of 2k superstardom in Tyrese Maxey and Tyrese Haliburton. The only knock on this team is that their 2 kids on the cusp play the same position and the team does not know how to play defense. Vitt has held firm on the idea of keeping the team intact despite a lot of outside noise that maybe they should look to move one of the young guards for a star wing or an assortment of more elite role players which would appear to work better playing off Jokic. The lack of defensive talent has been a real hit for Houston this year finishing 6^th with a record of 50-32 good for 6^th in the West and 9^th in the league.

 

What they do well:

Houston finished 3^rd in offensive efficiency of 120.24.

2^nd in true shooting percentage at .598.

2^nd best 3-point shooting team at 48%

4^th in assists at 26.7 assists per game

They are also the 4^th best team in the league at not turning the ball over.

A combination of all these numbers above show why they are in the position they are. They are an elite offensive unit that shares the ball, don’t turn the ball over and they make the most of their opportunities to put points on the board.

What they don’t do well:

They finished the season 23^rd in Defensive efficiency with a rating of 117.1.

They are 17^th in steals per game at 5.8.

They are 28^th in blocks per game at 2.8.

Due to their defensive woes, they are around the middle of the league in net rating.

These stats are extremely worrying when you are looking at whether a team can hold up over a 7-game series. They don’t play the lanes well and they don’t protect the rim much at all. I’d be interested to see how well they are able to defend the point of attack, but we don’t have access to this type of data.

 

Spurs: Managed by Nels, a GM that has unwavering confidence in his team with or without his star is no stranger to the bright lights of the playoffs reaching them every year since the inception of the NSL, and not only reaching the playoffs but achieving the glory of winning the championship not once but twice with 2 drastically different team structures. Nels much like Vitt has a top 5 talent he’d not trade for anyone in Giannis Antetokounmpo and has virtually created the 2021 NBA championship Bucks team with running mates Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday here in the NSL. Outside of the big 3 the talent drop off is rather drastic, the site has them ranked as the 29^th most talented team on paper. However, with the knowledge of 2k that Nels has he has defied that ranking with long athletes and elite rebounding and rim protecting bigs, having that superstar that lifts role players also helps them to finish 3^rd in the West with a record of 63-19 good for the 5^th best record in the NSL.

 

What they do well:

They are 1^st in defensive efficiency of 103.4.

They are 2^nd in rebounding percentage with .548.

Ranked 6^th in pace with a rating of 104.8.

Are 1^st in expected win% by a rather large margin of .862.

1^st in net efficiency with a +14.40.

1^st in FG% at 52%

1^st in defensive rebounding with 42.9 per game.

1^st in total rebounds with 52.8 per game.

1^st in blocked shots per game with 8.9 per game.

1^st in points in the paint with 71.8 per game.

1^st in margin of victory with an average winning margin of 13.8.

When looking at all these numbers it’s very clear why they have been one of the most dominant teams in the league this season and should be a favourite for the title. They defend at a very high level and protect the rim like no other. They close out possessions giving up limited 2^nd chance opportunities. Then they burn you with pace being a top-rated team in transition, getting downhill and getting to the rim with ease as the best in paint finishing team in the association.

 

 

What they don’t do well:

They don’t shoot the 3 well sitting at 25^th in the league with only 6.2 made 3s per game.

They don’t take many 3s sitting at 26^th in the league attempting only 14.1 attempts per game.

They don’t convert their FTs that well being the 11^th best team at getting to the line 23.9 times a game but only converting 18.4 of those per game sitting at 77% for the season good for 27^th in the NSL.

These are troubling numbers for any team that gets into a defensively tight contest. While drawing fouls they don’t make the most of those chances and they look to be content not letting the ball fly from 3.

 

Keys to the game:

Houston

·         The Spurs cannot and choose not to shoot the 3, they will have to look to get their matchups correct and limit the Spurs inside opportunities.

·         Dominate the defensive boards and play big.

·         Play through the Joker, even without Giannis they will still have Bol and McGee in the paint but they’re big and slow and foul happy. Work from the inside out and give Jokic plenty of opportunity to find open shooters when the double comes or beat the slower bigs in the PNR.

Spurs

·         Look to exploit Houston’s lacklustre defense and attack them on the interior.

·         A PNR with Holiday and Middleton if found could unlock the mid-range game for Middleton and once again exploit the defensive woes of the Rockets. (there is a playbook where this play is featured but no spoilers)

·         Spurs will have to find a way to keep Maxey and Haliburton quiet. Jokic can’t do it all on his own, a Holiday to Maxey matchup will be on the cards.

 

 

 

Looking at all the data laid out above you’d be wanting to sit in the camp of a 4-0 sweep in favour of the Spurs. However, the Spurs will be without their star player Giannis Antetokounmpo for this whole series.

Suddenly all the data laid out above becomes meaningless as Giannis was the dominant factor in all the categories the Spurs dominated this season. Vitt can potentially do for the league what has never been done before and just about guarantee a brand-new 1^st time Champion by eliminating the Spurs.

Houston come into this series with a full bill of health from the 1^st game, one would hope GM Vitt is not asleep at the wheel and puts in 100% of his effort into ending this series. Houston will still be in for a fight with the 2 remaining stars the Spurs have at their disposal but one would think Houston should be able to end this series in 5, 6 games. If they don’t, questions will have to be asked of the Rockets, is it the time to break up their guard duo. Does the Rockets GM care enough about winning? This series will answer a lot of questions.

 

My prediction is for the Spurs to end this 4-2.