This year’s East 4v5 matchup is the Utah Jazz vs the New Orleans Pelicans. On paper, one team seems a good deal better than the other, being 6 wins higher in the standings, so let’s dive a bit deeper and see how this should play out.

UTAH

Utah Starting Five: Dejounte Murray, James Harden, Franz Wagner, Jabari Smith Jr, Joel Embiid - This unit is a beast, led by the man himself Joel Embiid. With 4 players at or near the top 50 NSL, they are a scoring machine and boast a top 3 offense at 124 ppg. Three of their starters average more than 20 PPG, and the other 2 are right at 15, so the scoring is nice and spread around. However, despite Embiid in the paint, they have a below average defense at 117 ppg allowed. They do rack up steals at an impressive rate, and are careful with the ball averaging only 8 turnovers, but it’s still surprising that they’re a sub-par defense with the length that they have. (Note: The gap between them and average is not that much)

Utah Bench: If there is a weakness for the Jazz, it’s the bench unit. They are tied for bottom 5 in bench points per game, though I suspect this will not be as huge of an issue once the rotation tightens in the playoffs. Jalen Smith is their only reserver player scoring more than 10 PPG (though there are a couple that are close.) Regardless, this team will live and die by their top end talent, rather than their depth.

NEW ORLEANS

New Orleans Starting Five: Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, Grayson Allen, Al Horford, Rudy Gobert - Unlike Utah, the starting 5 here is a bit more compressed into fewer players, but higher overall quality. Luka and Kyrie are a tremendous 1-2 punch, and Gobert is a legitimate defensive presence in the paint. They’re a bit more evened out than Utah, with a bit worse of an offense and a bit better of a defense. The scoring load is also compressed, as both Luka and Kyrie are over 30 PPG, but the next best scorer is Allen at just under 15 PPG.

New Orleans Bench: The NO bench is also substandard, ranking only a couple spots higher in bench points than Utah and in the bottom third of the League. Their most effective bench player is probably Tre Mann, having a PER of almost 20, but overall they also don’t get a ton of points production from their bench. 

KEY MATCHUPS

The Guards and Centers

The best players in this matchup are all great players in the NSL top 50. Luka/Kyrie vs Murray/Harden and Gobert vs Embiid. Personally, I think the matchup to watch is gonna be Gobert vs Embiid. The Jazz get so much production out of Embiid vs the other guys, especially on the glass (He accounts for almost 40% of their rebounds alone). Gobert is well known as a stone wall. This is the classic immovable force vs unstoppable object. If Gobert can put the clamps on embiid and limit him to say, 20 PPG? I don’t know the Jazz have the firepower to keep up with the luka/kyrie combo.

X-FACTOR

Backup Big Battle

The Jazz have their backup C in Jalen Smith, and he pulls down more than 8 boards a game. The Pels dont’ really have a super great 6th man type big that can hold down the paint like Smith, so keeping the glass clean when the big boys are off the court is going to be paramount in a matchup where the starting lineups are so even.

PREDICTION

Pelicans in 7

I think this is gonna be a slobberknocker of a 1st round matchup, but in the end I think Gobert can put just enough pressure on Embiid to where the rest of the Pels can outpace the rest of the Jazz. I wouldn’t be surprised if this went in either direction, if one of these stars gets in foul trouble one game, it could swing the entire series.