Faceoff for the Future: Indiana vs Toronto

So last week, a moderate discussion took place in the discord, primarily between GMs Yeet (of Indy) and Dylan (of Toronto) about whose team was better set up for the future. As a future-facing team myself, talks about the future intrigue me, so I have decided to offer my thoughts on the outlook for the teams as the end-all, be-all arbiter of who�s better off. No take backsies, what I say goes, end of discussion! Kidding obviously, really though this was an incredibly tough decision. (Disclaimer: I will be observing players mostly from the NBA perspective, as that will more accurately reflect things like future ratings changes).

• First, let�s start with the obvious: Chet vs Wemby. As of right now the two in the NBA are the frontrunners for rookie of the year, and it�s not hard to see why as wemby is avg 19/11 with 3 blocks, while chet is at 17/8 with almost 3 blocks. Wemby is 19, while Chet is 21. Chet is pretty close to a 50/40/90 shooting split, while wemby is a tad more inefficient, being closer to 40/30/80 (a caveat, the spurs have one true PG on their roster, and he isn�t starting, so all the spurs have struggled with efficiency this season.) Both are good on defense so far, having a positive box plus minus on that end (Chet is slightly higher). So the verdict? Personally, while I am a big believer in FT% as a predictor of how a shot will develop, wemby is still shooting just fine from there, and I think the efficiency problems will clear up as the spurs get better down the line. Plus, wemby has better measurables than chet, having 3 inches on him and about 13 lbs. While you can�t really go wrong with this one, I give the slight edge to Victor Wembanyama.

• Let�s look at the rest of the youngsters on the roster next: The main ones of note on Indy are Keldon Johnson (24), Jabari Smith (20), Wendell Carter Jr (24), Aaron Nesmith (24), and Craig Porter Jr (23, included because Yeet will get mad if I don�t). For Toronto, we have Keegan Murray (23), Devin Vassell (23), Amen Thompson (20), and Ayo Dosunmu (23). For me, we know what keldon, carter, nesmith, vassell, and dosunmu are, which is good, solid players. Not much more upside to those guys but they are fine players who can start on an NBA roster, and indy owns 3 of them to toronto�s 2. I don�t really think porter is there yet, he�s cooled considerably since a good MST run, which leaves the higher upside players as Smith for indy, vs Murray and Thompson for Toronto. I personally am not sold on Amen yet because of shooting concerns and lack of playing time so far, so I have to give, again, a slight edge to Indianapolis on this. I just feel their overall long-term talent is a bit more solid, whereas Tor feels a bit more unknown at this point (Murray could absolutely push this in the opposite direction though if he turns into a star, just so far this season he�s kind of struggled, 47 pt game notwithstanding.)

• Next up, let�s look at draft assets. This is fairly straightforward, indy own a 25 IND 1st, a 26 WSH 2nd, and a 27 IND 1st, pretty bare cupboard. Toronto owns a 24 OKC 1st, a 26 MIL 1st, a 28 TOR 1st, and a 28 ATL 2nd. Not much better, but in quantity, there is a clear edge for Toronto on this one. The OKC pick this season is looking late lotto at best, and I don�t really think any of the other picks from both teams have a ton of upside. 25 IND 1st could be something but only if they commit fully to the rebuild, which they have not yet. Nor has TOR for that matter, which leads to�

• The last thing I want to look at is tradeable assets for the teams, meaning aging or non-timeline players that can fetch a noteworthy price in a trade. Both of these teams have one main big one that fits this category: James Harden for indy, and Rudy Gobert for toronto. So who do I like more here? Well, Rudy is a few years younger (IE farther away from expected decline) and he�s under contract for a couple more years, so there�s security there. He is also a center, which right now in the NSL does carry tremendous value. Harden, meanwhile, is older and on an expiring deal, but in this case that might be a positive? Most people don�t think Harden is getting a big contract next season, so if the pacers retain him on a smaller deal and he hasn�t keeled over by then, that could make him a lot more palatable for teams. He also is legitimately a top 20 player so far in the NSL, avg over 30 PPG for Indy with 5.6 boards and over 7 assists. HOWEVER! Toronto isn�t done, as I think Alex Caruso and Deangelo Russell could be attractive players on the trade market, especially caruso given his contract of under 10M. Therefore, I give the edge here to Toronto.

So, all in all, who comes out on top? I think Indy has the singularly best player in it all if only slightly, and they have more solid talent that can fit a rebuilding timeline imo, while Toronto is more of an unknown. Put a gun to my head, I think Indianapolis has the slightest of advantages here talking purely forward facing. The thing for me is that, while Toronto I think has more �upside� overall, given their tradable assets, there is no guarantee that they can or will travel down that path. If they just can�t find a trade for gobert, and if indy just can�t find a trade for Harden, I think that puts a indy at a net advantage given the other younger talent on the roster.

Again, this is only my opinion! And contrary to my opening blurb I am not the ultimate arbiter, and I don�t think there�s really a wrong answer here, it just depends on what you value more. Please feel free to give comments or constructive criticism if you disagree with any of my points!

Editors note: Caruso literally just got traded for tyus jones, so take that how you will.