The 2021 Play-In

As we all know, this year is the first year in which we have a Play In tournament to decide the final two slots of the playoff seeds for each conference. Effectively, making the playoffs an extended 10 team shot, although you�d have to have a pretty sweet run to come from 10^th, make the 8^th slot and then knock off #1. But still, the chances and hopes and dreams are at an all time high for teams now as yes, you can make the playoffs from the 10^th seed!

If you�re new to the play in, the format is simple. 7 plays 8, 9 plays 10. Winner of 7 and 8 takes 7^th. Winner of 9 and 10 plays the loser of 7 and 8 for the 8^th seed. Loser of 9 and 10�well, you know. See below!

 

 

So, who are we watching duke it out for a chance to make the ultimate under dog story for the first time!

 

 

The East:

The East has been reasonably set for a few weeks now, with only some jostling for final position down the stretch. The Bulls made a run a few weeks back to separate from the 76ers and the Raptors to claim the 6^th spot (and push for 5^th) and the Nets down in 11^th have kind of just hovered with only some hope generated from a once free falling Orlando whom lost 10 straight a couple of weeks ago. That has all settled down now though, naturally given it�s the final week, and we can announce now the East match ups!

 

7^th Versus 8^th, Philadelphia 76ers V Toronto Raptors

This one has been on the cards for a couple of weeks now, since Lebron James returned for the 76ers and saved what was looking like a fall from grace like no other. The 76ers were in 8^th when Lebron returned and it was looking like Miami might be the ones taking that 8^th seed match up. Toronto too got healthy at the right time after missing Paul George and Malcolm Brogdon at times, as well as the unfortunate timing of Mitchell Robinson�s injury before they acquired Steven Adams. But they kept on at it, loaded up on veteran role players and here they are. It�s going to be an interesting game with some big time stars.

Stars:

Lebron James

Lebron has been THE 76ers this year. There is no 76ers without him. The record differential is now a ridiculous 6-23 without him in the line up, and 39-14 with. They would arguably be the worst team in the league without him! Of course, we�re generalising a little there�s been other injuries too, but Lebron is on 29/8/9/1/2 on the season and since returning down the stretch, he has been averaging 35/8/9/2/2. It�s Lebron or go home.

 

Paul George

The Raptors made the move for George in the offseason and he has not disappointed. He�s been all they wanted and more averaging 35/5/5/2 and doing it with elite efficiency. 53/50/96 splits put him in rare air and the Raptors look to PG13 on the regular as their floor leader and scoring leader. Not to mention, his defensive prowess also locking down opponents.

 

Robin to the Batman:

Tobias Harris

Tobias is the #2 in Philly and a lot of people would question if he is the right #2 to be there after he came over from Phoenix for DeRozan, and to be honest, the jury will always be out. But, he is averaging 23/6/4/1/1 on 50/50/95 shooting for the 76ers and actually plays better when he�s asked to be that #2 rather than being called upon to try and be Lebron when he�s out.

 

Malcolm Brogdon

Brogdon has been a great addition to the Raptors and has embodied all they saw for Jrue before they had to make some salary saving moves. 18/4/8/2 is a great return from their big PG and his size, ability to score and playmaking ability has made him the perfect #2 behind Paul George.

 

Key Roles:

76ers � Al Horford, Draymond Green, Boban Marjanovic

The 76ers key role players circle around the use of their big men. Horford at C was too slow and not athletic enough, and he fit perfectly into the PF spot with his size above what Draymond could bring, next to an athletic defensive minded C with speed. This has allowed them to then run Draymond as a point forward off the bench bringing a defensive anchor to the court at all times and stabilising the line up. Lastly, Boban many thought should be starting throughout the year but his speed was an issue and his desire to shoot was being wasted in more ball hungry line ups, so he instead cemented the 6^th man spot being their #1 option off the bench, rightly or wrongly.

 

Raptors � Steven Adams, Montrezl Harrell, Miles Bridges

The Raptors loved Montrezl so much that they targeted him strongly in free agency which did cause a couple of headaches early around the cap issues, but he�s proven to be worth the hassle as their key glue guy starting or off the bench. He�s made up for starting Cs sitting nearly the entire year and only now do we see how he fares as that bench guy behind a starting C for a handful of games, in Adams, who is a key role player to balance out that big man rotation. He�s not your set the world on fire guy, but he fills the middle. Bridges is a guy that Jesse loves and he continues to start at SG in an attempt to be that #3 guy the team desperately craves now that Caris and Gordon are elsewhere. His scoring will be a key role.

 

 

9^th Versus 10^th, Miami Heat V Orlando Magic

Both of these teams have had to fight through adversity this year with injuries to key guys. Of course, Orlando missing 12 games from Trae, a handful from Steven Adams, nearly a year from Avery Bradley and having to wait for Kevin Love doesn�t quite hit the same mark as half the season from McCollum, 19 games from Simmons, 14 from Gallinari, 18 from Jabari and another half a season from Windler, Wendell and MCW. Straight up, Miami have been one of if not THE most unlucky team in the league for injuries and that is why they are in 9^th this year thus far. They nearly caught the free fall from the 76ers, had Lebron not returned when he did, and then had some slight hopes as the Raptors struggled a little in the final weeks, but they are here and can still make noise if they are healthy. The Magic, they are as healthy as they have been all year too and by this point, it�s just about causing some headaches more than turning the corner and winning it all from here. But that doesn�t mean either won�t want the shot at making the playoffs!

 

Stars:

CJ McCollum

CJ missed nearly half the season this year and in this engine, that loss is even more of a hard take than in any other year. He�s been elite when he�s played dropping 31 a night on 53/51/94 shooting and giving the somewhat offensively phobic Miami a scoring threat on a nightly basis. They have looked markedly better with him in the line up and he�s the reason we�re even talking about them as a play in team, and not just another lottery team this year. They�re 26-21 with CJ, and 12-21 without.

 

Trae Young

It doesn�t come much better than Trae Young in this engine, in this league, at point guard. 33/3/7/1 are his numbers on the year and he can win a game off his own back on the right day. No one comes close to his PER on the team, and the guys that did are all long gone in trades through the year as the Magic set themselves up to be better in the coming years down the stretch. Trae though, is here to stay.

 

Robin to the Batman:

Ben Simmons

It�s funny to think of a player of Ben�s calibre as a sidekick, but in a lot of ways his skillset lends himself to that role despite the impact he would and does make in the intangibles column. He�s the #2 scorer at 18/7/8/2/1 on the season and the floor general, but they have struggled in the games where he�s had to be their main scoring threat, while they really compliment each other when both he and CJ play.

 

Kevin Love

It�s an odd choice suggesting Love is the #2 in Orlando given he�s only played 4 weeks here, but everyone else that was in the role is gone until you look down to Donte DiVincezo, who has been a key role guy but not a true #2. In the games he�s played he�s averaged 16/12/2 on 54/54/100 and he�s given them a #2 scorer almost like they haven�t seen all year.

 

 

Key Roles:

Heat � Danilo Gallinari, Mo Bamba, Matt Thomas

The Heat supporting cast really are a great set of glue guys. Gallinari can basically do what he wants when CJ and Ben are playing as he�s not expected to be a weapon, but he is more than capable of being just that. He�s their scorer who can go off at any time. Mo Bamba might not yet be finding his feet in the big league, but his size and length is all important to the Heat manning the middle. He is the antithesis of what Pete likes in speed, athleticism and length and blocking 2.5 shots a game makes offensive guys notice him in the key. And then there�s Thomas who has filled whatever hole he�s been asked to, but nearly 9 points a game on great floor spacing shooting and the team can have these guys bob up when the big guns are playing.

 

 

Magic � Donte DiVincenzo, Avery Bradley, PJ Washington

Donte has been a mainstay this year for Gav. He rebuffed offers all offseason and 11/3/3/2 is a really good result from the glue guy on the wing. He�s taken the place perfectly of Avery Bradley, who has finally returned and stepped right into the role you�d expect of him with floor spacing and defence, just like Donte. 9/2/3 in 23 minutes is a great return and they�ve missed his output. And finally, PJ Washington who is still waiting to come on strong, but he�s been a mainstay in the starting line up more often than not, and nearly averaging double figures with 6 rebounds, and is expected to build on that next year.

 

 

 

The West:

The West has been arguably even more set than the East for a while now, with the main story being whether the Kings could hold on to the 10^th seed or not with the rampaging Suns coming home on the back of a DeRozan. Their schedule helped them though and they have staved off the attack, to be the ones in the 10^th spot fighting for a chance to be included in the playoff picture where they haven�t looked like they could be all year. Houston finished the year with a flurry, flying up to the 7/8 showdown, but a Memphis 10 game win streak closing the season kept them just a step above as they finally had JJJ playing week in week out and Jaylen Brown back also, leading one of the more fearsome defensive units not at the very top of the standings.

 

7^th Versus 8^th, Memphis Grizzlies V Houston Rockets

It�s been an interesting year for both of these teams. Both were tipped to make the playoffs and both are division rivals. Would you believe, they are 4^th and 5^th in their division? The Grizz if healthy were expected to challenge for the top spot but Jaylen Brown has ended up missing 25 games, Mike Conley was a late inclusion via trade, Tyler Herro has taken a step back and missed 12 games and JJJ took 14 weeks to make his eventual debut. For all these reasons, 7^th is a great result through adversity. The Rockets have almost been a different tale all together. They�ve made a few trades through the year but they suddenly clicked behind their superstar right when they needed to around the deadline and suddenly this team of true basketball players went from looking in from the outside, to being genuinely in the double chance hit out spot.

 

Stars:

Jaylen Brown

Brown has been the big step up this year for the Grizz. Arguably one of the MIP players on the year and averaging 29/6/5/1/1 on 60/55/87 shooting as a true leader. Of course, he�s missed a big chunk of games which has been disappointing but he�s likely to be available for the play in and he is their genuine leading star this year to take them to the promise land.

 

Nikola Jokic

Do you get much bigger in the way of stars than this man? Jokic is averaging 26/15/4/1/2 on 62/45/94 shooting on the season but down the stretch when it�s been this massive push, the Joker has upped that to 32/17/4/2/2 and established himself as another of the leagues absolute elite big men, like he should be. It�s no coincidence that all these wins came down this stretch matching this Jokic production and the team is going to keep on riding him.

 

Robin to the Batman:

Mike Conley

Conley was a stroke of genius to be added via trade in the year. The team needed someone else to step up and needed a PG while Derrick White continued to sit, and so Mike came on in and averaged 21/3/6/1 with under 2 turnovers a game. The perfect compliment to the leading scorer of Brown.

 

Norman Powell/Josh Richardson

In Houston I don�t think you can have one without the other here. Both these guys have been playing in tandem on the wings, and their averages in starts are near identical at around 16/3/3/1. Powell has been the more efficient guy all year, but in most cases, you can only lockdown one and the other steps up in a given game, which is why they are a tandem of sidekicks in my eyes.

 

Key Roles:

Grizzlies � Derrick Favors, Derrick White, Tyler Herro

The Grizz really are a team of depth and talent. In this bunch you�re talking about their middle man who has started every game he�s played gobbling in rebounds and protecting the paint. Favors has been a big body key to the team all year. Then you have the electric spark in Herro who has come off the bench more than started and averages nearly 17 a game, while Derrick White finally got on the court and has filled a really nice role averaging 14/3/4/1/1 himself just adding to the plethora of ball handling players for the Grizzlies. It doesn�t really stop here either, you can throw in Smart and Anunoby for massive key roles too and then there�s JJJ just sitting there waving.

 

Rockets � Tyrese Haliburton, Delon Wright, Davis Bertans

The Rockets are one of the more all round basketball teams going around. By that I mean they simply have ball players and don�t worry about that old 2k label. These guys embody that to a T. Haliburton was their big in season acquisition for the now and the future and he�s played a key efficient ball handling scoring role with 11/3/4/1, while Wright has held down the starting role nearly all year in the games he�s played and his stats don�t jump off the page at 10/3/6/1 but he�s a big guard and makes problems while having only minor weaknesses. And finally Bertans. He�s filled the floor spacing role next to the Joker in the games he�s played and again, hasn�t set that world on fire, but makes his shots and causes the defence to spread which helps balance the rest of the floor.

 

 

9^th Versus 10^th, Golden State Warriors V Sacramento Kings

For a long long while the Warriors were sitting in the 8^th seed chopping and changing like they were going to be 8^th, 9^th, 8^th, 9^th and finally they have settled in 9^th. For this reason, they also were unsure if they were in or out on the year making moves to try win some extra games but also dumping out on other players in attempts to tank and look to the future. But here they are, behind Zach and now staring down the barrel of a battle for that chance at a final playoff seed with the Kings who if nothing else, have been trying ever so hard to bolster their chances of being in this spot or better all year. Move after move, hope after hope and they stayed right in about the same spot all the while with less and less to work with to get that bump up. But the latest incarnation is set and ready to fight as it�s all the GM has wanted all year.

 

Stars:

Zach LaVine

Clay will tell you, and everyone, Zach is not only the star of this team but he�s the star of the entire league, and while that might be going to the extreme, 30/4/5/1 on 54/48/96 is one hell of a star to have on your squad. He�s the life blood of the team and the untouchable and he�s going to be the one to come up big if the Warriors are going to try and get 8^th or further.

 

Nikola Vucevic

It�s hard to say who the star of the Kings is when the current two best players have been here for 5 and 7 weeks total, but Vucevic is the clear #1 in Klemm�s eyes and the eyes of the league with 25/16/3/1/1 being his numbers in Sactown. In that time, they have actually been better but the jury is out on whether that�s as much the Vuc effect or the schedule effect, but they are 10-9 in games with Vuc and if they are going to trouble the Warriors, it�s going to be on his back.

 

Robin to the Batman:

Andrew Wiggins

Wiggins is the clear #2 in Golden State still, all be it with Ayton being a monster. Wiggins can turn a game on his own with his athleticism and speed and he�s put up 19/5/3/1/1 in the game she�s played for the Warriors, all starts, making for a nice tandem with the high flying LaVine. The team needed a #2 and they found one.

 

Buddy Hield

Buddy is a scorer and he�s shown that everywhere he�s gone, here is no exception. He�s not quite at Vuc level scoring but only 2 points off at 23/3/4/1 and without him out there all of Vuc�s efforts would be for naught as he needs a wing man. This pairing is locked in for years unless they get traded, again, and they make for a fairly nice pairing on paper but they need a lot more around them.

 

Key Roles:

Warriors � DeAndre Ayton, Dylan Brooks, Jakob Poeltl

One of the most important players on the Warriors roster is the big man in the middle, DeAndre Ayton. He�s not leading the scoring and probably can�t lead the team alone just yet but at 15/15/2/2/2 he is an absolute monster on the boards and defensive menace for a team that needs this role filled more than anything. Dylan Brooks still hasn�t translated properly but he�s being the spark on the bench since coming over with 12/3/2/1 in 22 minutes which has really helped lessen the load on the starting crew and then there�s the big man they brought in from Portland, Jakob Poeltl who won�t ever set the world on fire but can man the middle and pull in boards at a great rate off the bench to the tune of 8/10/1 and 1.5 blocks in only 24 minutes.

 

Kings � Evan Fournier, TJ McConnell, Mason Plumlee

The Kings looked for and found a floor general in TJ that surprised everyone. He�s put up some elite assist numbers doing exactly what they needed of him, run the team and get it to the guys who can shoot but need the set up. 6/2/11/2 is some really interesting all round numbers, but those assists would be up there for top of the league if it was a season long thing. Fournier is playing the spark role off the bench at both wing and PG and doing it perfectly since they have no one outside of Vuc and Buddy to score on the regular, and then there�s the other big man to play the inside while Vuc is out, and move the ball, big Mason Plumlee who is averaging a near double double despite only 23 minutes a night and half his games coming off the bench.

 

 

 

The Prediction

There�s going to be some cracking play next week with these 8 teams but there can only be 2 eventual winners in each conference, to continue on into the true post season. My predictions?

In the East, I think the (while biased) the 76ers with Lebron in tow are simply going to be too strong for the Raptors. Their last meeting only last week saw a 45 point win to the 76ers and while it shouldn�t be that big, I�d imagine they take the 7^th seed. The Raptors I believe will be facing the Heat who will be too strong for the Magic. The Heat size and star power is simply going to be too much for Orlando at this time. The 8^th place battle will be an epic one with both teams matching up really well on paper. I think stopping CJ will be a key, and it can�t fall to Bridges at SG, change that up, and maybe the Raptors can then hold off the Heat. I�m not a betting man, so I would steer clear of trying to call this one either way if they meet.

In the West, I feel the Grizzlies have got healthy at precisely the time they needed, though it will depend on Jaylen Brown who missed this week. If he�s back, I think they take that 7^th seed they currently hold. If he�s not, it might be a slog, but they can probably still get there. I then think the Rockets will be facing the Warriors to battle it out for the 8^th seed. The Kings and Warriors kind of match up really badly for the Kings IMO. Ayton on Vuc and then Zach all over Hield and the big PGs of the Warriors maybe getting in TJs face too much. If it falls this way, I think the Rockets will be too strong for the Warriors as Jokic is another level over Vuc and Wiggins/Zach will have to take on the Powell/Richardson combo who go both ways quite well while the Rockets have more weapons outside of that bunch.

 

Good luck to all in the pay ins and congrats on making it this far!