PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS (1)

Vs.
SAN ANTONIO SPURS (5)

WHAT WE KNOW HEADING INTO THE SERIES

Turn up the heat! The Western Conference finals series continues and sadly we saw the gallant Dallas Mavericks (7) go down 4-2 to the Portland Trailblazers and the fierce LA Clippers (4) knocked out by the San Antonio Spurs (5). A tough battle awaiting both teams, the Blazers had a slight scare early in the matchup, as Dallas found themselves 2-2 drawn after the first four games. The 2 wins were the Mavericks only victories over the Blazers, capitalizing on the big man mismatch.

The Blazers were thrown into panic mode, as Kristaps Porzingis caused multiples headaches; averaging 29 points, 11 rebounds and 1 block per game. But, not to be outshone, Kahwi Leonard and James Harden combined for an average of 54 points per game, 12 boards and 12 assists. The Blazers were bolstered by their next tier players such as Rudy Gay, Jamal Murray and Dwight Howard; effectively running the floor, capitalizing on a weaker Mavericks second unit and holding up the defensive end.

While the Blazers have a significant offensive output, they showed their defensive productivity in the series. Out-rebounding Dallas by 4.5, out-stealing Dallas by 4.5, out-blocking Dallas by 1.3.

San Antonio got aggressive through their series against the LA Clippers. The Spurs did not mince words; stifling the Clippers in a 4-1 series victory. The Clippers made no secrets about their offensive outlet through the regular season, and the finals were no different, as Giannis Antetokounmpo exploded in the series for 35 points, 12 boards and 6 assists throughout. The Spurs had all the answers though running deep with their contributors. Bradley Beal, KAT, Malcolm Brogdon and Crowder were able to call all the shots; accumulating an average of 84 points per game between them.

The statistics from the series were quite close; a key area of success for the Spurs were their lower rate of turnovers, efficiency from 3 point range and the free throw line. Furthermore, their ability to outscore the Clippers by 10 points on average. Throughout the season, the Spurs most imposing statistic was their scoring (no.4 in the NSL), in particular from fast-break opportunities (no.5 in the NSL).
The Portland Trailblazers were no.1 in both categories.

Blazers Starting 5 v. Spurs Starting 5

Centre

W.Cauley-Stein vs S. Adams

The Centre battle will be very telling for the series. The productivity that Porzingis was able to generate against the Blazers were mostly due to the inability for WCS to keep up with him. While Cauley-Stein was able to annoy and body him, Porzingis was able to run away at times. While Adams doesn’t have the arsenal of Kristaps, he does have the ability to cause problems in the post. It will be a much closer battle. These two will both throw punches; they will both find their games on both the defensive and offensive ends of the court. Adams averaged close to a double-double in season, and in series. Cauley-Stein was just shy of Adams’ stats.

Winner of the Match-Up – TIE

Power Forwards

D. Howard vs. K. Towns

KAT cannot be denied as a threating option for the Spurs. While Dwight Howard has the ability to muscle and body Towns, I think that he will find the rim often. Giles was unable to shut him down, and Adams and Towns really do work off one-another. This tandem play will frustrate the duo of Cauley-Stein and Howard. He was able to manage 24 points, 12 rebounds, 2 blocks and 5 assists on average per-game. Howard on the other hand managed 9 points, 11 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game. Howard will need to be at his best to keep Towns quiet.

Winner of the Match-Up – K.Towns

Small Forwards

K.Leonard vs. T.Warren

As previously discussed, the Spurs have been successful in their ability to share the load with balanced contributions. Warren is a perfect example of this, however in the series he was far quieter than his in-season. His differential between in-season to series averages were: -5.9 points, -.08 boards, -1.4 assists; albeit against MVP candidate, Giannis Antetokounmpo. He will need to be more effective to give the Spurs the victory. He will also need to be more accountable on the defensive end as he shapes up against Kahwi Leonard. Leonard had an average of 19 points, 6 boards and 3.5 assists. Kelly Oubre was able to pester and frustrate him; Warren will need to do the same.

Winner of the Match-Up – K.Leonard

Shooting Guard

J.Harden vs. B. Beal

One of the most interesting matchups of the playoffs. Beal top scored for the Spurs in both the regular season, and the previous series against the Clippers. Harden top scored for the Blazers in both the regular season, and the  previous series against the Mavericks. The two players are electric to watch, they spot up across the court and have driven their team’s success. Beal was too much for the inexperienced RJ Barrett;  averaging 28 points across the series, and 4 boards, 3 assists. Harden, however was 35 points, 8 assists and 4 boards; making players around him better. If Beal can hassle Harden and force a bad shot or two, it will go a long way to bringing home the win. Beal was able to do it against Barrett, I don’t see it against Harden though.
Winner of the Match-up – J.Harden

Point Guards

J.Murray vs. M.Brogdon

Jamal Murray has been everything the Blazers needed him to be. The court running ability of Harden and Leonard are such that they need a player who can carry, find space and make their own shot. Murray has been that exact player, making it a tough series for Fred VanVleet. Playing second-fiddle to Leonard and Harden doesn’t mean he has been less-than; rather he has been a vital cog in the machine, producing an impressive average of 16 points, 5 assists and 4 boards.

Brogdon on the other hand, has been a primary supplier for the team rounding out the big three alongside Beal and KAT. Brogdon flexed himself against the veteran, Rubio in the previous series. 19 points, 7 assists and 7 boards on average allowed the Spurs to fleece the Clippers. This will be an armwrestle; but I see Brogdon coming out on top here on just. Murray will make it hard work for him.

Winner of the Match-up – M.Brogdon

TALKING POINTS

·         The Trailblazers were 1^st for points, 4^th for rebounds, 5^th for assists, 3^rd for steals and 4^th for least turnovers during the regular season.

·         Rudy Gay managed an average of 15 points, 5 boards and 3 assists off the bench against the Dallas Mavericks.

·         Jae Crowder managed 13 points, 7 boards and 2 assists off the bench against the LA Clippers.

·         Both teams averaged 10 turnovers in their previous series.

·         Harden and Beal are 1 and 2 respectively for in-season FBP.

·         Howard and Towns both rank in the top blockers in the league; both averaging 2 blocks per game.

VERDICT

The series will be one of the most interesting, as both teams spruik their own brand of basketball. The balanced team play of the Spurs, up against the crash and grab ball of the Blazers. JMac has been the architect of the Blazers team that sets out to bully the opposition. While Nels has constructed a Spurs outfit that nullifies their opponents; almost suffocating the opposition. Both GMs have reason to stack their claim for this one. The word ‘arm-wrestle’ comes to mind, as both GMs will be play this one out til the end. It see a tight contest.
The Blazers will come out on top, but with a gallant Spurs team making life difficult. Predicting it will go all the way to a game 7.