NSL Playoffs: West Round One

(2) Phoenix Suns vs (7) Golden State Warriors

 

This matchup is an exciting one, as even though Phoenix is the #2 seed, they only won 9 more games than Golden State.  This isn’t a ton of games in the scheme of things, and looking at the rosters, it looks like Golden State will have a good chance of competing with Phoenix here. 

 

Looking at both GMs, you have one who is a trade machine in Laddas, he made what looks like 34 trades this year, that’s separate transactions, whereas Titles only made 6 deals this year.  Now we all know that Laddas makes a ton of trades, but that’s a pretty big disparity in transactions between the two GMs.  Maybe continuity of roster may play into this matchup since the Warriors have probably played more games together?  When looking at the lineups, the Warriors have had 12 different lineups this year, while the Suns have had 15 different lineups.  I’m surprised, as I thought the Suns would have something like 18 different lineups, but I’m sure the trade deadline had something to do with that.

                                    

Comparing Stars on the two teams, they are actually more comparable than I initially thought they would be.  Jimmy Butler is the clear leader of the Suns, as Chris Paul is a little bit past his prime.  Butler is averaging 24 ppg, 6 rpg, and 4 apg for the Suns.  He’s also one of the best defensive players in the league.  Zach Lavine for the Warriors is averaging 26 ppg, 4 rpg, and 5 apg.  He’s not nearly as interested in playing defense, but he’s getting it done on the offensive end.  Butler is much more efficient as he takes about 5 less shots per game to get a similar production, Lavine is more of a shot-taker than shot-maker.

 

                                                  

 
Let’s have a look at how the likely starters matchup:

 

Center:  Nemanja Bjelica vs Deandre Ayton

 

Bjelica is more of a PF, but he’s a great stretch big, while Ayton is a more traditional center.  Ayton is a great rebounder and defender, top 10 in blocks and steals, but Bjelica is a bomber, even though he’s only averaging 28% for the Suns from downtown.  I like Ayton better here, but they are asked to do different roles.

 

Power Forward:  Kyle Kuzma vs Robert Covington

 

Kuzma has been killing it for Phoenix, averaging 20 ppg, while Covington isn’t asked to score much, under 10 ppg for the Warriors.  These guys are completely opposite player types, where Covington is great at D and shoots the occasionally 3-ball, while Kuzma doesn’t play much D and scorers at a really high rate.  I think Kuzma is the better player right now, but if Covington can shut him down that would change the series.

 

Small Forward:  Taurean Prince vs Harrison Barnes

 

Prince is an alright player, he’s a below-average starter, or above average bench player, that’s about how I feel about him.  Barnes has been KILLING it for GS though, averaging over 25 ppg, and really giving them another scoring punch besides Lavine.  I don’t see anyway that Barnes doesn’t have the advantage here.

 

Shooting Guard:  Jimmy Butler vs Isaac Bongo

 

Butler is probably the best player in the series, and Bongo is probably the worst starter, so this isn’t really fair to compare.  Maybe Bongo can slow him down?  I know they like Lavine at point guard, but this doesn’t seem fair, advantage Butler.

 

Point Guard:  Chris Paul vs Zach Lavine

 

This may be the matchup to watch this series, Lavine is more of a scorer, but CP3 has all the veteran whiles, and is an excellent defender.  I would expect Paul to try to get Lavine in foul trouble, and just make his life hell on the court.  I don’t think either has an advantage in this matchup.

 

Benches:

 

Duncan Robinson, Jusif Nurkic and Terry Rozier is a pretty nice bunch to come off the bench for the Suns, but Golden State has Horford and Kanter, so their bigs are insane.  I like what the Suns have going on, a little bit of everything, but the bigs for Golden State are going to be a problem.  Slight edge to Phoenix here.

 

The Suns can win this if Butler and CP3 go off, and their bench dominates Golden State’s bench.  I don’t see a huge advantage at any position other than Shooting Guard for Phoenix, so they need to get great production from him.  They also need to make sure to contain Zach Lavine, as he can go for 50 on any given night.  For the Warriors to win, they have to hope that their better front court defenders can cause havoc around the rim, and that all of their bigs cause a problem for the Suns.  If Lavine can do his thing with CP3 guarding him, then they have a chance.

 

Prediction:  In the season series, Phoenix has the 3-1 advantage, but I don’t think that matters since the teams are so much more different now than what they started with.  I see this series going to 6 games, with Phoenix winning 4-2.  I like the Suns balance on their roster, and the veterans they have will really help in crunch time.  I don’t see Chris Paul and Jimmy Butler losing to a 7 seed, even if this Warriors team is pretty talented.  It wouldn’t surprise me if the Warriors were able to win it, but I don’t think that is a likely scenario here.