Itttt’s time! The playoffs are here folks and the excitement is real! Both conferences ended up coming down to the final few games in the final week to finalise even the top 8, let alone the final seedings, with mini battles going on all round the place as teams jostled for position. Home court was the key, and then who to match up against in the 1^st Round as each of the teams strive to claim the ultimate prize.

Sitting amongst the middle of the East, the Miami Heat who were sitting pretty in 2^nd most of the year before key injury to their star PG meant that they finished the season on the downturn and holding on for 4th, will be hosting the Cleveland Cavaliers who finished 5^th after shaping and moulding the roster a number of ways in a bid to catch the upper East. With both teams now near full strength, we’re all set for a showdown which could see the victor go all the way. It’s the master versus the apprentice in some aspects, and this one suggests tight games down to the wire.

 

The Heat
Record: 51-31

The Heat are a team built with three key things in mind, length, versatility and most importantly, the game engine. GM Pete has been the zen master of the sim world for a few years now coming from what would seem to be impossible positions, or maybe improbable positions, to beat the odds and win out. But not just win out, we’re talking 4-0 style against teams that seemingly held all the cards and finished above him on the standings. The man knows the game and how to play it. So, when the NSL came into existence he went out and built himself a team for the game around the one-of-a-kind, 6’10 PG prodigy, Ben Simmons.

 

 

The Heat started the season finding their footing a little. Two weeks in, they were a surprising 4-6 as they were feeling out rotations, strategies, and each other, before it clicked as any astute GM would have believed it would under Pete. Over the next 4 weeks they would go 15-1 and leave the slow start well and truly in the rear view mirror as Ben Simmons took over, leading the team scoring in all but 3 of those games. It was at this point that Miami were dealt their 1^st blow of the season, when Jonathon Isaac went down for what would turn out to be a full regular season injury. The result was noticeable in their win column. Not that they weren’t still winning, but the long streaks of wins dried up at that point, with the longest after then being 5 games, and only once. Simmons went down with a chronic back injury by the end of week 14, while they were sitting happily in 2^nd behind the raging Bulls, and despite their 5 game winning streak happening in the 2 weeks after that, the result was 12-11 down the stretch (9-10 without Simmons) into the playoffs after they had been sitting 39-20.

The Heat are typically not vast movers in the trade scene but did make a couple of key deals along the way this year. The thing they will always do, is improve right now when making a deal. PJ Washington was shipped out early, right before Isaac went down, to bring in Aaron Gordon. They sold high on Norman Powell for a 1^st and a future 1^st swap, but also included Tony Snell as not to lose out on the court in the immediate. They somehow found a buyer for Nic Batum’s contract, but not only that, got a winner in Paul Millsap out of it too, and finally, they pooled non-lottery 1sts and Aaron Gordon to bring in the scorer and 2^nd ball handler they had been craving next to Simmons when they got CJ McCollum. This leaves the team we will preview below.

 

The Cavs
Record: 49-33

The Cavs GM took over the helm right before the season started after the team was drafted by another new GM who didn’t end up sticking round to see the team through. As is often the case when this occurs, a GM will go out and make the team theirs, build it their way, around guys they want in the coal face, and Dylan did just that. The Cavs had considerable trade chips at their disposal which was perfect for making it happen and the team took shape, slowly building momentum along the way. Dylan proved to the league that he had a vision, he had a style he wanted and he wasn’t afraid to go out there and put it in motion, doing what he had to in order to get the types of players he wanted to build around to try and win with Paul George the jewel in the Cavalier crown.

 

The Cavs started the season really just learning the ropes and feeling their way. Dylan was brand new and it always takes time to get a feel for what is happening and how it is happening, which saw the team start off in fits and spurts. They were 4-4 after two weeks, which is not bad at all, but by halfway through week 5 after they started to tinker and move, they were sitting 7-11, finishing week 5 at 9-11, before they shook it up properly saying goodbye to their franchise player in Nikola Jokic and bringing in Paul George. The result was instant. They went 11-2 in the next 3 weeks with George taking over the scoring load and leading them in 12 of the 13 games. The fit was perfect. Unfortunately, they’d then lose Geroge for the next three weeks which saw them play as a .500 team again, before they got their man back and won 14 of their next 18 games through the trade deadline and finishing up week 16 with a 41-25 record. The run home from there saw them go 8-8, which cooled them a little as they tried to find the right chemistry, running out different line-ups each week to find the key ahead of a certain playoff run.

Once Dylan found his feet, the moves came fairly steadily over the months. They were searching for an identity and their style was clearly different to the drafting GMs, as they quickly shipped out key role players with heavy defensive influence in Robert Covington and Danny Green to bring in LaMarcus Aldridge and Josh Hart. Next they targeted a big man, getting Robin Lopez for a song, before making their franchise altering deal sending Nikola Jokic and Grant Williams for Paul George and Daniel Gafford. They now had an identity. Josh Hart departed again, for Nerlans Noel, before they traded out their next biggest name in Malcolm Brogdon, surprisingly with a 1^st round pick, in order to bring in a slew of role players in Brook Lopez, Will Barton and Dejounte Murray. LMA was the next to go, righting the ship after being sold him early on, and Jarrett Allen was the building block they desired. They dumped the Cory Joseph contract, before finally swapping out the big bad contracts of Brook and Barton right before the deadline for Danilo Gallinari and the team then was left finding the best way to put the puzzle together down the stretch. The preview is to follow.

 

The Match-Ups:

C Projected: DeAndre Jordan  Vs  Jarrett Allen

 

This match-up is probably the most locked in you’re going to get for the entire series. The options otherwise are to go small, or for the heat to go Bamba, neither of which would seem to be likely.

Jordan is a man mountain. He’s everything you need at the C spot in this league and he came at a fraction of the cost of the true elite bigs, but is not any less elite. 13.6 points, 13.2 rebounds and 1.2 blocks from your starting big man and he gobbles up everything while clogging the middle. He’s an anchor for the Heat.
Allen started every game this year, but it was for 4 teams as he seemed to be more of a trade chip to most than you’d have thought. He found his home in Cleveland though, where he played most of his games, and despite trying both PF and C, he’s now locked in where he should be at the spot and is averaging 10 points and 11 rebounds, with a full defensive stat line doing so. He’s a younger version of what DeAndre has been for years.

-          Funnily enough, this match up reads as a master and apprentice thing too. Allen is Jordan 2.0 in 2k, but isn’t at the same level yet with Jordan holding the elite ratings in key categories which make him a stud.

 

PF Projected: Thon Maker  Vs  Danilo Gallinari

 

Things are far less certain at this position. It all depends how each GM on any given game wants to line up. Miami could run Millsap, or even Bamba and Carroll through here, while Cleveland have Mike Scott, Jeff Green and the amalgamation of the 2, JaMychal Green, all able to suit up here sliding Gallo down.

Thon is a Pete special, and he was drafted to be so. He started the season as a starter, which might actually explain the slow start a little, but down the stretch as Isaac remained out and Gordon was shipped out, he’s remained heavily in the rotation the whole way because his length and skillset make him a 2k guy averaging 14/7/3 with 1.4 steals and 1.4 blocks as a starter.
Gallinari has always been that guy threatening to really be something without ever actually being it, but if you’re looking for a guy who can pour it in occasionally while consistently putting up double figures then he’s your man. At PF this year, starting, he’s only done that for the Cavs and it’s yielded 17 points and 7 rebounds which is up a bit on his season averages and thus seems to be the bets use for him.

-          At least to start the series we’re projecting this match up. Why? Because I believe Pete would laud this as a big win for Miami to negate and match the oppositions 2^nd biggest name with a 2k guy who will arguably have more impact.

 

SF Projected: Wilson Chandler  Vs  Dejounte Murray

Nothing set in stone here at all. Chandler has started 3 of the last 4 weeks for Miami, as a stop gap until Isaac returns, but Carroll or Millsap could easily slide on in. Murray is projected to start at SF right now, only because we’re projecting a super star face off at PG, and Murray is too good to leave sitting. Huerter is likely to play here too and Gallo might shift down. Not to mention the obvious PG13 playing his true position.

Chandler is another Pete favourite. He does the little things on both ends with his IQ and a good mix of strength and vert still, and he likes to move the ball and play a role, which is key. He’s not goingto be the difference maker, but he will allow others around him to be that difference maker while holding down the fort.
Murray at SF? It’s unprecedented. He’s only shifted up to SG this year, but he has the height to probably pull it off and against the likes of Chandler it might not actually matter particularly. He wasn’t available last time they played, instead seeing Huerter play SF, but maybe this will be a boon beyond projection.

-          The SF spot in Miami really is a stop gap spot where you hope to stop the opposition guy enough while contributing 1%ers around the crew. If it’s Murray, maybe throwing the cat amongst the pigeons will force hands an match up movement.

 

SG Projected: CJ McCollum  Vs  Reggie Jackson

It feels like this match-up is one of the more set projections. CJ has no equal, and Reggie’s size isn’t an issue against a CJ which means Huerter and Shake can handle other positions and roles.

CJ and Miami go together like a horse and carriage as is evident by his best stop of the season where he’s donned no less than four jerseys. On paper, he wouldn’t seem to be a Pete guy, but he’s exactly what they needed which is what makes the master so good. He’s going to score, it just depends how much. He’s going to shoot, and they want him too with Simmons slashing and dishing, and DeAndre cleaning, and he’s a true impact guy here.
Reggie has only started at PG this season, but he was a reserve SG last week and averaged double figures. As a starter at PG he’s over 17 points a game, and there’s no reason he can’t produce at least that lining up at SG as a second ball handler and speedy offensive threat. He’s probably the safe bet to go toe to toe with CJ.

-          It’s a shoot out. You can’t stop CJ, so maybe just cut the losses and join him as he also can’t stop anybody. If that’s the option, Reggie makes perfect sense and these guys wil probably stay locked in all series.

 

PG Projected: Ben Simmons  Vs  Paul George

Is this really what we’re going to see? Please please please! Let’s not pussy foot around and try and run our guys away from each other, lets go full force and tackle the enigma with PG13. Miami of course won’t both moving Ben unless absolutely forced, which might see Payton switch in or CJ switch down, but as long as he’s there we’re projecting PG stays here too with Murray the only other real option.

Simmons is the engine room of this team no matter where he plays. He has started at SF once, which was devastating for numbers, but also was pretty average for results, so why move the enigma unless you absolutely are forced. He’s going to be playing 40 minutes a night, if the game plan was revealed a little in Week 20, and that will make his averages of 23/6/7 look paltry.
Can Paul George play PG? I think we’re going to find out. He’s his teams best defender, he’s the guy who handles the ball most anyway, and he’s got the size to hopefully hamper Simmons a bit. It was early on, and pre-George, but allowing Simmons free reign at PG in the match ups they played was devastating and PG should drop his 30 a night where ever he plays as he meets guys with this height and defensive prowess every week at SF.

-          This would be an epic dual if it happens as projected. George plays on guys this size weekly, but Simmons is usually matching up on guys 4 or more inches shorter than he is, even if they are in the same calibre of star. Could Paul George force a change, or might we just see a epic 2 step the whole way through.

 

Bench Projections:

Paul Millsap, DeMarre Carroll, Mo Bamba, Elfrid Payton, Matt Thomas
Vs
Kevin Huerter, Jeff Green, Shake Milton, JaMychal Green

These are the projected key guys on each bench. Millsap is heads above the rest in terms of talent and effectiveness, but Bamba might in fact be the difference and impact maker. The Cavs don’t have the real size the Heat have and size wins. Looks for lots of shots and points from Huerter and Jeff Green though, possibly as starters.

 

Keys to Victory:

 

Heat
- Protect the ball. The Cavs average far more steals and the Heat average more turnovers, not a good mix.
- Limit the 2^nd and 3^rd options. Paul George averages nearly double the points any other Cav does. Make him beat you by himself.
- Contest the 3 ball. The Cavs shoot far more 3s, at a better clip. Get in their face.

Cavs
- Crash the boards. The Heat have dominated the glass in their match ups. Box out. Limit chances. Over double the second chance points for the Heat.
- Protect the paint. 21 more points per game have come from inside for the Heat and double the second chance points. Make them shoot.
- Smart shots. The Cavs have 5 more FGA a game, but shooting 41% compared to 50%, and allow 5 blocks a game compared to 1.7. Don’t force, shoot smart.

  

Head to Head Prediction:

The Cavs have had a great inaugural season and the GM will have learned a lot over the course of the year. He’s now got a list that he’s happy to call his own and has shaped them the way he wants, and will continue to do so. The Heat though are a machine built for 2k/NSL success and with Simmons back they really are a juggernaut that would have pushed the Bulls if it wasn’t for the slow start and the injuries suffered, so they will show no mercy.

Heat in 5.