JAZZ (50-30) VS WOLVES (48-34)

This 4 v 5 matchup is a battle of opposing teambuilding styles (though perhaps not to Shay’s design, as he is a Certified Butler Hater.) The Wolves are more top heavy, with 2 top 20 players in Anthony Davis and Jimmy Butler, and another solid center in Jonas Valanciunas, while the backcourt of D’angelo Russell and Cole Anthony is…fine I guess, and the bench is lackluster. Meanwhile, the Jazz boast 5 players of 85OV or better, which has helped to overcome the loss of Joel Embiid for basically the entire season. While I would say AD is the best player in the series, it’s not by much. James Harden has been a force all season, averaging almost 35 ppg. 

Five Best Players:

Bear in mind this does not necessarily mean these 5 will be starting for each team, given positional limitations, preferences, etc, but just on their own, the major edge goes to Utah here. Utah has Harden, Reaves, Daniels, Porzingis, and Wagner; in theory all of them could start given the positional flexibility of Reaves and Daniels. However, Reaves has only started 4 games of 41 for them this season, so it seems likely he will at least start the series as a dynamite 6th man.

Meanwhile, Minnesota has AD, Butler, Val, Russell, and Anthony. Like the Jazz, I do not think all 5 of them will be playing together, as they (like the jazz 5) have not had a single minute on the court all together this season. Their main starter at the 3 was Dorian Finney-Smith who is no longer on the team, and according to the depth chart they may be starting Cam Reddish, which is fine someone has to fill that spot. Butler and AD will be taking most of the shots anyway.

Overall, I love the overall versatility of the Jazz 5 better; Daniels can be used as a stopper on Butler, without the lineup sacrificing any offensive power behind Harden and Wagner. Another key matchup to watch for will be AD vs KP. KP is no slouch but Davis is an absolute monster. The Jazz are much more well balanced but you can make an argument the Wolves have the 2 best players in this series.

The Other Guys on the Roster:

I am interested in exactly one thing here, and that’s Matisse Thybulle. Utah’s depth chart has him starting at the 3; if this is the case, I’m curious who he would guard (Or Daniels if Thybulle draws Butler). He is another tremendous defense presence but unlike Daniels, he is defense only. I suppose you can never have too much defense, and the offense reaves can provide on the bench unit may just make this the best spot to stick thybulle, but having him on russell or reddish seems like overkill vs having someone like Franz Wagner starting. If they do indeed start Thybulle, I would be surprised if they stick with it as having both Reaves and Wagner on the bench is just leaving too much firepower at home, but it’s not my call. Meanwhile, on the Wolves side, you have probably Cole Anthony and not much else. I think the Wolves are going to get completely shredded in the bench minutes, regardless of what Utah does.

X-Factor:
Kristaps and Franz. The Wolves top 2 is obvious, AD and Butler. Who is the Jazz’s 2nd guy? Franz and KP need to be better combined than Butler for them to win this I think, because while Dyson is not a liability on offense, he is also not large volume, and reaves may be doing his damage on the bench. It’s a big 3 vs a big 2, but the big 2 has a chance here. If AD and his tremendous defense on both the interior and the perimeter can shut Porzingis down, the Jazz may need to look more to Franz to be the de-facto #2.

Predictions:

I do think this could be a little closer than I’m banking on depending on what Utah decides to do with its lineup, and the Wolves top 2 guys are some of the best in the league; however, I just think the Jazz have too much depth. Even if they do get outscored in the starter minutes, I don’t think it’ll be by much, and I think they’ll romp so hard in the bench minutes that it’ll more than make up for it. I think this series has potential for 7 games but I am predicting Utah in 6.