Western Conference Semifinals Preview: Pelicans vs Timberwolves

We’ve got a star-studded matchup underway out West, as the 5 seed Timberwolves (48-34) take on the 8 seed Pelicans (47-35).  Only 1 game separated the two teams in the regular season, where the Wolves finished 3 seeds ahead of the Pels, but dropped the season series 2-1.  Both teams appear to have found form at just the right time, culminating in what I expect to be a hotly contested series.  Let’s break it down.

Timberwolves:

The Timberwolves are set to live and die by the play of their two key pieces.  Anthony Davis and Jimmy Butler are the engines that make the team go, and both players will be relied upon for heavy impact if the Wolves are to win the series.  They’ve got some handy depth players beyond those guys, but no one who’s yet ready to step up and win the team a series.  D’Angelo Russell, Cole Anthony, and Jonas Valanciunas will all play pivotal roles in the series.  The scoring of Anthony or Russell off the bench is certainly an X-factor here, along with Valanciunas’ premiere rebounding and interior scoring abilities.  Landry Shamet or Andre Jackson Jr. will be relied upon for some spot forward minutes.  Shamet has stepped up big time in the recent past providing some high-level shooting from beyond the long line, where as Jackson is a bit more unproven in his NSL career.

Pelicans:

The Pels are led by a star as well.  In New Orleans, nobody shines quite as bright as Luka Doncic.  After a shocking mid-season trade just 1.5 years ago, Luka arrived in New Orleans and has not looked back since.  He’s surrounded by a cast of former stars, and potential up and coming stars, but doesn’t have a running mate quite to the quality of Davis or Butler.  What the Pelicans do possess is depth.  Russell Westbrook, Spencer Dinwiddie, De’Andre Hunter, Aaron Gordon, Rudy Gobert, Benedict Mathurin, Santi Aldama, and others fill out the rotation for the Pels, with each player bringing a premiere skill to New Orleans.  Gobert will loom large in this matchup, with a real test in defending Anthony Davis while fighting for rebounds.  Outside of Gobert, the Pels are a bit undersized, especially at the 4/5 spot, so the rebounding battle figures to be especially prominent in deciding the matchup.  The Pels will hope their depth is enough to fight the star power of Minnesota.

Matchups:

PG: Cole Anthony vs Luka Doncic

Sometimes how you start isn’t always how you will finish.  This is the one clear winning battle for New Orleans.  Their prime-time star takes on a guy who has been a 6^th man for much of his NSL career to this point.  Anthony has been given the keys(figuratively) to the Minnesota offense and has thrived in the role at points.  He does have some off scoring nights, of which the Wolves can’t afford here, but he’s held his own in some tough matchups down the stretch.  Unfortunately for him, he’s going to encounter a top 10, maybe top 5 NSL player, and he will almost assuredly end up on the losing end of this matchup because of so.

Edge- Heavy, Doncic

SG: Jimmy Butler vs Bennedict Mathurin

Jimmy “Himmy” Butler is an NSL vet, legend, and playoff merchant, who is primed for yet another big series in the Western Conference Semifinals.  Butler can score, pass, and defend at a level that is hardly rivaled throughout the league.  Mathurin is a young up and comer with some scoring chops, but he will have his hands full in this matchup.  I don’t think he will find easy sledding on either end of the court here. 

Edge- Heavy, Himmy

SF: De’Andre Hunter vs Andre Jackson Jr.

De’Andre Hunter greatly elevated his game in the NBA this year, and while his NSL counterpart has made strides, he hasn’t quite emulated the ascension of his IRL self.  The one thing he does really well in the NSL, is defend.  Andre Jackson Jr. isn’t much of a scorer, so it’s likely the Pels coaching staff aligns him against one of the Wolves stars, like Butler.  When matching the 2 up on paper, the decision is easy.  What Hunter is today is what the Wolves hope Jackson becomes. 

Edge- Hunter

PF: Anthony Davis vs Aaron Gordon

Tough, tough matchup for Gordon in this one, who is no slouch in the NSL.  Gordon had a stellar first playoff series, scoring over 15 points per game, while shooting over 60% from the field, and over 40% from 3.  While the Pels would love to have Gordon scoring in this one, Anthony Davis is here to put that to an end.  Yet another top 10 NSL player in this matchup, Davis dominates on both ends of the floor.  Perhaps more important to this series than Davis’ scoring and defending, is his prowess on the boards.  If the Pels are to make this a series, they will need Gordon or another source to goble up rebounds, which may be few and far between with Davis, Valanciunas, and Gobert all vying for anything that comes off the rim.

Edge- Heavy, Davis

C: Jonas Valaciunas vs Rudy Gobert

2-3 years ago, this would have been one of, if not, the best center matchups in all of the NSL.  Both were, and continue to be great players, but the stylistic differences are what makes this matchup so intriguing.  Gobert is a powerhouse defender and rebounder.  He’s not a creative scorer, but he will score some points off putbacks, and even some alley oop drawn up plays.  Valanciunas, is near the mirror opposite.  While a strong rebounder as well, Valanciunas value comes much from the offensive end.  He is a strong interior finisher, who can stretch out beyond the 3-point line.  This should be a great matchup to watch, with no clear winner to predict.

Edge- Wash

X-Factor:

The Wolves have a major advantage in the size category.  Perhaps not 1-5, but where the size really matters, in the front court.  It could be said that the most logical matchup for Davis on the Pels end is Gobert, but unfortunately for the Pels, they lack another big man with the size and strength to match up with Valanciunas.  The Pels will rely on some combination of Gordon, Aldama, Boucher, and Matkovic to provide an interior presence worth of opposing the Wolves big men.   I see the rebounding battle, and interior scoring as a decisive winning factor for the Wolves in this series.

Prediction:

I hate the fact that I am writing this 2 games into the series, as I can tell you, if I had written it prior to the series, I would have likely guessed 6-7 games to the Pels.  However, after 2 Wolves wins, and after writing this in-depth breakdown, I now understand how it is that the Wolves have roared out to a 2-0 series lead.  The big man mismatch for the Wolves appears just too much to overcome for the Pelicans.  I’ve now got the Wolves winning the series in 5 games.  4-1 Minnesota.  Best of luck to both teams in the series!