Mock Draft 1.0 (Lottery Edition)

The season has been a fun one. Winning streaks, big time trades, unexpected surprises, the whole 9 yards. And now, after a 1st round that saw every single series go at least 6 games, we are smack in the middle of the second round. But with that also means something for the teams that didn’t make the playoffs, and that’s preparing for the draft. And the first step in the draft process??? The NSL lottery. And man was this lottery a doozy. I think the most fun part of this draft is that the amount of range for all of these prospects is vast, with some players being mocked in the top 5, all the way to outside the lottery. You have no idea where someone will land!! With that being said, let’s jump right into it. 

1. Memphis Grizzlies Select: Alexander Sarr, PF/C, Perth (France).

Stats: 7’1, 224lbs/ 9.6ppg, 4.5rpg, 1apg,1.5bbg on 50/27.6/70.7 splits. 

Man do the rich just keep getting richer. This isn’t even Mem own pick, it originates from Chicago, but they got the pick in a deal with the previous CHI GM. And then of course, with only a 6% chance, they jump all the way to the number 1 spot in the draft, talk about dumb luck. Personally, I say it’s 50/50 they keep the pick, however with recent news that everyone not named JJJ or Brown are open to be dealt, which was a shock to the league, it seems more likely they keep the pick and take Sarr. Sarr’s stats don’t jump out, but his upside is what has him number one. With his frame, athletic abilities, and natural defensive instincts, Sarr projects to be a quality defensive anchor from day 1 of his professional career. What does this mean for Mem? Well for starters it’s an insurance policy with the injury proneness of Robinson and JJJ, but it also means a bigman in Mem could be on the block potentially with a young blood coming in. Either way, Mem is playing with house money, so going with BPA over fit makes the most sense if they keep the pick, and Sarr is the BPA at pick 1. 

2. Indiana Pacers (From Portland via trade) Select: Zaccharie Risacher, SF, JL Bourg (France). 

Stats: 6’9, 204lbs/ 11.1ppg, 4rpg, 0.9apg on 47/38.7/70.7 splits

Another case of “the rich getting richer '' Portland only had a 0.9 percent chance of landing 2nd overall. But luck was on their side, and they jumped ELEVEN spots all the way from 13 to 2. With already more firsts than anyone else and a plethora of young talent, the front office had some decisions to make. Then came knocking, highly criticized GM Yeet, the winner of last year's grand prize Victor Wembanyama. After around 2 weeks of constant negotiations, the two GMs agreed on a deal that sent the 2nd overall pick to Indy, and up and coming wing Keegan Murray to Por. While some questioned this move by Indy, there is some sense to it. Instead of having to pay Keegan next year, you get a rookie that you don’t have to pay for 3 years, potentially get a rookie that can provide two way impact, gain some additional assets back, and solidify some certain players as cornerstones. Now with Risacher, Indy gets someone that could potentially replace Murrays input almost immediately. Risacher is a great catch and shoot player and is quick on his feet, making him a good cutter and driver. There's also the fact that he comes in with a great defensive presence too. Risacher can come into Indy and start right away as a Glue guy wing that can provide a two way impact for the team. However, sources say that Indy is also in the market for another first in the mid to late 1st rd, with an eye on a couple other prospects. 

3. Atlanta Hawks Select: Donovon Clingan, C, UConn.

Stats: 7’3, 282lbs/ 13ppg, 7.4rpg, 1.5apg, 2.5bpg on 64/25/58 splits 

While the first two picks will most likely be between Sarr and Risacher, pick 3 is when the waters will start to get a bit more murky. Atlanta had multiple shots at number 1, and while unfortunately didn’t win the grand prize, they did win arguably a  bigger prize. # picks within the top 8 belong to Atlanta, shades to Utah last year who picked 2 and 3. I expect Atlanta to move at least one of these picks in a deal to bring back some talent and to start progressing the rebuild after trading away Siakam and Lillard last year, But pick 3 will definitely not be one of them. The biggest need for Atlanta is a starting C, and Clingan fills that role. At a staggering 7’3 with a massive build of 282lbs, Clingan has quickly shot up the draft rankings after multiple promising private workouts for teams, with much praise going to his seemingly improved shooting compared to the season. But that's not where he makes his money. Clingan is a massive paint presence on both sides of the floor that will make anyone and everyone's life inside the paint a nightmare. While Atlanta does have two more lottery picks to potentially take talent and add to Clingan, sources say Atlanta has been on the phones, open to the idea of moving both picks 6 and 8 along with a young player or 2 to Pair with its budding backcourt of White and Quickly. 

4. Orlando Magic Select: Nikola Topic, PG, Red Star (Serbia).

Stats: 6’6, 201lbs/ 14.5ppg, 3.2rpg, 5.5apg on 50/30/88 splits. 

Orlando made a mid season deal with chicago, sending out Jalen suggs in exchange for Cameron Thomas. With this deal Jalen Suggs proceeded to blossom while Orlando began to lack a true starting PG. Jordan Clarkson is more SG than PG and Tre Jones isn’t really starting material, no offense Tre, big fan. Enter Topic. Topic is the tallest PG in the draft at 6’6. He also arguably the most well rounded player in the draft. Topic’s ability to pass, score, defend and rebound all while playing the PG position is rare, but his height gives him an advantage over most of his fellows peers at the same position.These reasons above are why, despite the recent news of a partially torn ACL, are why I believe he doesn’t fall in the draft, he’s young, he’ll heal fast. There's also the fact that his main selling point, playmaking, will also overshadow his injury. Topic is a natural playmaker, averaging 5.5 assists per game in Serbia. Along with his solid shooting and frame, Topic is poised to be able to play the 1-3 positions, which in turn could give Orlando a somewhat unconventional lineup next season. If Topic is the pick, expect him to start with Zion, and his new favorite lob threat Jarrett Allen. While Topic solves the PG issue, expect Orl to spend the rest of the offseason and FA solving their starting wing issue, with names like Clarkson and Johnson potentially on the block to bring back a bigger wing. 

5. Chicago Bulls Select: Matas Buzelis, SF, GLeague Ignite. 

Stats: 6’10, 197lbs/ 14.1ppg, 6.6rpg, 2apg, 2bpg, 1spg on 45/26/70 splits. 

While everyone else seemed to get some pretty good luck, the lottery gods didn’t sprinkle a little of their dust on Chicago. Chicago was armed with GS’s first rd pick and was slated to “hopefully” land first overall. Instead they fell 5 spots, landing 5th, while their own pick jumped to number 1, and belongs to Memphis. But not all is lost. They pulled off a mid-season trade to land Jalen Suggs, who blossomed in the second half of the season, and find Diamond in the rough wing GG Jackson. The Bulls primary focus this offseason is to find a starting PF that can pair with Claxton in the frontcourt, and that may come in the draft. While Matas is technically listed as a SF, there’s a good chance he’ll be PF eligible his rookie season. With his height, shooting, and defensive abilities, Matas would actually be the ideal forward next to Claxton, with his ability to space the floor and smart defensive instincts that just need some polishing. There’s also the fact that Matas has a good frame to put on some muscle as well. A starting lineup of Suggs, Melo, Bridges, Matas and Claxton would be a dream lineup. Spacing, defense, playmaking, shooting, everything. Along with that, sources say that Chicago is hoping to combine some seconds and a player to get back into the late first, or to get some future picks, starting in 2025. 

6. Atlanta Hawks Select: Ron Holland, SF, GLeague Ignite.

Stats: 6’8, 197lbs/ 19.5ppg, 6.7rpg, 3apg, 1bpg, 2.3spg on 46/24/73 splits. 

While I don’t entirely see Atlanta keeping this pick with not the best options at 6, and already having a massive amount of young talent, if they do keep it, Holland seems like the best pick. Ron was the consensus number 1 in this draft for a good chunk of time before Sarr really broke out. His mix of natural athleticism and toned defensive skills makes him the ideal wing in today's NBA. However he does have one glaring, his lack of shooting. While his form is there, his consistency is arguably the biggest reason for his fall. 24% from 3 and 46% from the field aren’t good numbers for a wing. However he does have more positives than negatives. He’s arguably the best cutter and downhill driver in the draft with his strength and athleticism. And with Atlanta, he would be a good fit with the amount of shooting that team has. Sticking him in the starting lineup or even as a 6th or 7th man would give atlanta a stud wing that could develop into an AS caliber player. A starting lineup with Holland at the 4, and a little bit of polishing on his shooting mechanics would turn Atlanta into a playoff team very, very soon. 

7. Dallas Mavericks Select: Rob Dillingham, PG, Kentucky.

Stats: 6’4, 164lbs/ 15ppg, 3rpg, 4apg, 1spg on 47/44/80 splits. 

I don’t think there's a clearer “Match Made in Heaven'' Pick in this draft. I'm sure Dallas is hoping Topic falls to 7th and with his injury he just might, but if not, Rob is a pretty damn good consolation prize. Dillingham is an offensive juggernaut. He’s a great passer, elite shooter, gifted iso scorer, he’s a legit 3 level scoring threat. And for Dallas this is perfect. Besides Kuz, they lack a real go-to scorer. However, with positives come negatives. Rob comes with not a lot of size or muscle. While he does have some good defensive instincts, averaging a steal per game at Kentucky, that’s about it for him. His height and wingspan, along with lack of muscle will make him a liability of defense unfortunately. However Dallas has the pieces to make up for that with the likes of Mark Williams and THT. Rob Dillingham can immediately come in and potentially be the number 1 or 2 scoring option out the gate. This Dallas team still has some offseason moves to make, while potentially looking for another first, but Rob Dillingham is a great building block for this team's future. 

8. Atlanta Hawks Select: Reed Sheppherd, PG/SG, Kentucky.

Stats: 6’3, 182lbs/ 12.5ppg, 4rpg, 4.5apg, 2.5spg on 54/52/83 splits. 

Atlanta has 3 picks in the top 8 of this draft, I still think it’s unlikely they keep all 3. ATL keeping pick 3 makes sense for them to land their future center, but I’d be surprised if they keep picks 6 and 8 with the amount of young talent they already have on the team. Don’t be surprised if they try to package picks 6 and 8 for a young star player, or for a ton of future draft picks with the next 2 drafts supposed to be deep. However if they do end up keeping this pick, BPA is the route to go with the lack of talent in the forward and center positions in the lottery besides at the top. Now personally, I'm not that high on Reed, but I will admit he’s talented. Arguably the best 2-way guard in the draft with his only real issue being his lack of size, Reed could come in and immediately provide great guard depth for Atlanta. HIs ability to shoot, defend, pass, score and create all at a high level is rare for a rookie, but his skills are all fundamentally sound. His biggest question will be if those skills translate properly to the professional level. 

9. LA Clippers Select: Stephon Castle, PG/SG, UConn.

Stats: 6’7, 210lbs/ 11ppg, 5rpg, 3apg on 47/27/75 splits. 

While Reed Shepard may look like the best defensive guard of the draft on paper, Castle plays like the best defensive guard in the draft. His stats don’t pop out, but he does all of the little things with a high basketball IQ. His offensive stats aren’t the best, but he wouldn’t be drafted for offense, if anything, LA has that covered. If anything he will be brought in to cover up the defensive liability that is Jordan Poole. With Castle's size and high iq, he can immediately come in and provide an ample defensive presence in either the starting lineup or off the bench. However I wouldn’t be surprised if LA moves from this pick. They have a glaring need for a starting center, and have the assets to get one.  Potential combination of Pick 9, one of their many young wings, and another player/pick could land them the starting C they oh so desperately need. Expect the Clips to be active on the phones as we near draft day. 

10. Portland Trail Blazers Select: Dalton Knecht, SF, Tennessee. 

Stats: 6’6, 212lbs/ 22ppg, 5rpg, 2apg on 46/40/77 splits. 

Arguably the best pure scorer in the draft, Dalton is scorched earth personified. Topping the 30 point mark 8 different times this season, including a 40 piece against national powerhouse Kentucky, Dalton is a pure 3 level scorer where your best defense is rosary beads and a prayer. For Portland, this is perfect. Getting Keegan back for pick 2 is a great deal, but this team still lacks a true bucket getting (No offense Bogdon). Dalton can immediately plug in off the bench and scorch unsuspecting opposing teams benches. This kid is what the old folk call a “pure hooper”. However, this pick may not end up being in Portland's possession come draft night. After moving pick 2, sources say Portland is open to move pick 10, and other assets as well, hoping to condense their treasure chest of picks. If you’re a team looking for a lottery pick, Portland is one of the teams selling right now. 

11. Miami Heat Select: JaKobe Walter, SG, Baylor. 

Stats: 6’5, 198/ 14.5ppg, 4.4rpg, 1.4apg, 1spg on 37/34/79 splits. 

Miami is a scary team, when they are healthy. Unfortunately the injury bug was the main reason for Miami’s downfall this season. This team, when healthy, is scary as hell on defense with tons of size and two way ability. But their second biggest downfall was lack of scoring, with CJ being the only player to average more than 17ppg (24.9ppg), and Fultz being the only other player besides CJ to average more than 15ppg. Adding scoring should be Miami’s main focus this offseason, and they can start that search off right with Walter. Projected to be the first SG in the draft taken, Walter knows how to score. His stats may make it seem like he’s somewhat of a shot chucker, but he scored in single digits only 9 times this past season, showing his true consistency to score, even if he’s having an off night. Walter might not start right away for Miami so they can keep that size advantage of theirs, but I wouldn't be surprised to potentially see him as the team's 6th man, providing the team a scoring punch they desperately lack. 

12.  Golden State Warriors Select: Cody Williams, SF, Colorado.

Stats: 6’8, 178lbs/ 12ppg, 3rpg, 1.6apg on 55/41/71 splits. 

Sources say that GS will be after a lead guard or bigman in this draft. With their own pick going 5th, but to CHI, GS lands here at 12 with CHA pick. Now this team does have a good amount of wings, but there’s two prime reasons why Cody is the pick here. 1. BPA. GS is in the early stages of a rebuild, so drafting for position isn’t entirely the best idea. Drafting the BPA is the ideal way to go in their situation. And if Cody’s brother is any indication of his potential skill set and ceiling, then Williams could end up being the steal of the draft. 2. Sellers. Like previously stated, GS has a plus amount of wings, which in turn should make them sellers this offseason. Don’t be surprised to see them as one of the most active teams in deals, looking to move off veteran players in exchange for young fellas and picks to help accelerate the rebuild. Either way however, Cody Williams is a great pick here for the rebuilding Warriors. 

13. Utah Jazz Select: Tidjane Salaun, SF, Cholet Basket (France).

Stats: 6’9, 203lbs/ 10ppg, 4rpg, 1apg, 1spg on 40/31/75 splits. 

For starters, i’d be surprised if Utah keeps this pick, already making it known they are open and willing to move it in the right deal. However if they do keep it, Salaun is a good pick here. Tons of upside with his size and has been shooting up draft boards over the last month. However he’s raw, like really raw. If you want a comparison for him coming into the draft of a prospect with high upside but extremely raw, then Osumene Dieng is him. However, for Salaun, he’s not going to be drafted with high expectations in Utah. His role would be clear and simple, come off the bench, provide some good all around play for around 10-15 minutes a night, and just learn. For Utah their primary focus right now is re-signing star guard duo Harden and Murray, and continuing to compete, so they need to make sure whatever they do with this pick, either keep or trade, they make sure it’s used in a move that keeps them competing. 

14. San Antonio Spurs Select: Kyle Filipowski, C, Duke. 

Stats: 7’0, 230lbs/ 16ppg, 8rpg, 3apg, 1.5bpg, 1spg on 50/35/67 splits.

Another case of “playing with house money” and “i’ll be surprised if they keep the pick”, SA is in a good situation here. This pick originally belonged to Indy, but a flurry of trades and a top 3 team in the west now has pick 14. According to rules, they technically can’t trade the pick, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they make the pick, then trade said player taken in a deal once the year flips. However, if they do keep it, Kyle is a great fit. For a team that embraces the big man, Kyle fits this team like a glove. Gives SA a capable bigman that can rebound, be an interior presence on both sides of the ball, and also stretch the floor. Kyle was originally seen as a top 5 pick to start the season, but has fallen since. However that’s more so due to more talented players coming forward, not really any knocks towards him. Kyle can come into SA as a 6th or 7th man off the bench and provide some quality production minutes around their big 3.