Minnesota and Houston

With both teams first round series never in doubt (sarcasm) the the first two teams to make it through to the next round are Minnesota and Houston. Minnesota did away with the retooled Nuggets who at times looked like they might steal the series quite handly in 6 games, with a huge win to seal the series. While Houston knocked out the short handed Spurs, who were unlucky in love again as the playoffs came around, this time without their super duper star, Giannis Antetokuonmpo. Houston was lead by their young star Tyrese with Tyrese helping and some other Joker along for the ride.

In bad but unsurprising news for Houston the season series between these two foes saw Minny leave to victor in each occasion. The closest they got in a match up was an 11 point margin in overtime which saw Haliburton as the starting point guard. The rest of the match ups saw Hali as the shooting guard, and the margins only got bigger. Perhaps we see a return to that line up to push the Wolves to lose some games.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The success of the Wolves is unsurprising after their trade for Anthony Davis over the summer. His all round games is scary to face and difficult to counter, whether he is dominating on the inside at both ends of the court putting in nearly 30 points and blocking over 2 shots each game so far this playoffs, or his extreme efficiency with minimal turnovers and shooting nearly 70% from deep and overall. He is a monster that cannot be stopped when the season is on the line. Pair him with the much maligned (by me) superstar in Jimmy Butler. His scoring in the previous series has been amazing, while also sharing the rock 7 times a game and making free throws free. He goes to the line 10 times a game, which is a fantastic attempt rate, thing is he gets 10 in per game too.

We all know a team isn't only about its stars though, and surrounding these two shining lights with Jonas Valaciunas, free agent signing of the year Donte DiVincenzo, the match up dependant DF-S and KB-D hypen-acronym-squad, the ever reliable (this season) Kevon Looney, and then you still have the two Cams. Honestly I don't know how Ethan manages that roster but he does and he does it well.

This brings me to the most critical part of the machine that is Minny. GM Ethan is always hard at work and knows how to win, as shown by his awesome outside of NSL achievements. In game though you can see game by game tweaks to his line up as he finds the right mix to put Denver to the sword or to take a game 1 victory in this series. He gets the ball to the stars and makes sure the rest of the players are positioned as best they can to take advantage of the opposition. Take for example JV to the bench in the middle of the last series, he continues  gets his numbers, and so does Looney as the starter, but the team leaves with a victory in each of those next 3 matches. How deep into his bag of tricks will Ethan go this series?

 Houston Rockets

The Rockets are lead by the equally able Vitticus who has fought his way past previous champions to get this far. While Giannis was out of the last series getting through the cunning Nels is still a badge of honour to wear. We saw the critical adjustment that Vitt was able to squeeze out of his team last series was acknowledging a failed tweak and rectifying the situation. Justin Champagnie was added as starting power forward and saw the team come out vittorious in the first game, but they dropped the next. Recognising that he should return to the veteran Marcus Morris Snr in that role, helped him win the series.

The Rockets have received lots of jealous criticism because of their rising Tyrese's who in theory play the same position. Critics, including myself, have called for the break up of the pairing to balance out the backcourt but the team has stayed solid and found a way to make both players shine, while also keeping their big man engaged in the game. Time has proven the critics wrong as both were able to find their shots in the last series, with Maxey leading the way with 29 per game. As mentioned in the first section this team though has found its "best" success against Minnesota with Haliburton as the lead guard, whether that was just the 2k gods on that day or is it a viable solution, only Vitt really knows.

How have I gone this far into the article without calling Nikola Jokic out by name? This guy is pulling down 17 boards a game and putting up 20 points, while his efficiency hasn't been comparable to the Minny bigs, he is a class act that will find his way to impose himself on the game.

The depth is also pretty good in Houston, but whether they fit the 2k lime light as well as they do in the NBA will be played out over this series. TJ McConnell and Paul Reed are the key depth pieces that you probably want a bit more out, but might not have the physical tools that 2k needs to succeed. Its fitting that the last player mentioned is Harrison Barnes, he's kind of the Mr Invisible of the NBA for me. Really good player, will show up and have some good games, but never really captures the attention when surrounded by other guys on his team. But I guess that is what makes him great in both realms, a high quality 4th guy that knocks down 60% of his deep shots and is good enough at defence to call it a draw.

X Factors

The X factors for this series will be the defensive match ups. Ethan called out in the game 1 pregame that he forgot to set his, it didn't affect the outcome, or maybe it did? Could the two Gms reknowned for tweaking and getting the best out of their players, tweak too much and find themselves in a crazy cross match situation? Is leaving the game to the players the best approach for this series and let the best man win?

The another X Factor that is as "Ann as the nose on plains face" is the rebounding disparity that the Minnesota bigs create. Can Houston find a way to minimise that rebounding differential to 10 or so, and therefore reduce the second chance point differential to less than 10 also. Might be the difference between a loss and an overtime victory.

The final X factor as mentioned repeatedly is does Haliburton become the point guard through the series? Or does the high scoring Maxey retain the spot? Could that be enough to swing some wins?

Summary

After both teams have fought tough 6 game series to get through to this match up they both deserve another long hard fought series. Unfortunately I think Minnesota has Houstons number this season. The rebounding advantage, and the big man efficiency are too difficult to overcome within just a 7 game series. Most pundits have picked a long series but all have tipped Minnesota. I'm picking a short 4 game series with Minnesota bringing out the brooms. Its just too tough a match up for Houston to overcome, especially when Jimmy will be is set to restrict one of the Tyrese's.