NSL GM Survey 2022-23 Predictions

With another GM Survey submitted by the vast majority of GMs in the league, we now have some precious data to analyse and break down. This section of the GM Survey review will focus on the predictions for the upcoming season. We will tackle award predictions, risers and fallers, conference predictions and bold predictions for the upcoming season.

Who will win the 2022-23 Championship?

The Blazers and Spurs rivalry has polarised the league since the beginning of the NSL. In fact, between the two teams is every Championship trophy handed out in league history (Blazers 2, Spurs 1). It seems GMs expect the rivalry to continue in 2022-23 though quite a lot has changed over the NSL landscape. Receiving 50% of the vote was the likely favourites to win it all again, the Trailblazers. The Blazers will have 2 of the top 3 players on their roster come week 9 (Lebron and Durant). Portland have been busy filling their depth chart by trade, surrounding their stars with a plethora of talented vets who can defend multiple positions and stroke from the outside. The voters are once again fearing the defending champs expecting injury to be the only factor standing in the way of the first back-to-back title run in NSL history.

Other notable vote getters:
San Antonio Spurs- 30.8% and Minnesota Timberwolves, Charlotte Hornets, Detroit Pistons, New York Knicks, Toronto Raptors- 3.8%

 

Risers vs Fallers- who will have the biggest improvement and who will regress?

 

Let�s start with the good news stories, the risers. There were 3 clear favourites for the biggest improvers in NSL land for the coming season- the Knicks 38.5%, the Grizzlies 19.2% and the Pelicans 11.5%. All three teams are loaded with talent with the Knicks being the biggest off-season movers in the NSL. GM Smokey got to work before the trade deadline last season as he acquired injured superstars and set his sights for next season. He followed up his quality deadline work by striking gold in the lottery with pick 2. The second pick was shipped off in a move to bring Jimmy Butler to town to be the face of the franchise with Kawhii Leonard. This defensive juggernaut looks loaded in all positions after the Dallas Mavericks fire sale gifted them multiple role players for the price of one future pick. They are poised to be big improvers on their 31-51 2021-22 season and should run the East and enter the playoffs as one of the Championship favourites. 

Other notable vote getters:
Grizzlies 19.2%, Pelicans 11.5%, Lakers 7.7%, Boston 7.7% and OKC 7.7%

 

The Decliners:

This is not the pie graph you want to feature in, the downhill skiers of the league. These are the teams on the way down and seem to have lost direction, that being said they might actually have a clear direction which is to head south to enter the Wembanyama race in the draft lottery. There were two clear stand-outs in this poll, two teams coming off playoff runs- the Clippers (34.6%) and the Pistons (19.2%). The common theme between the two teams was trading stars away for future capital in the offseason.

Since league inauguration, the Clippers were a consistent playoffs threat mainly due to their Superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. After another first round exit at the hands of the talented Grizzlies team, GM Andrew decided to go back to the drawing board to decide if he had the talent to contend with the best player in the league. The answer was rebuild and Giannis was shipped to the Spurs for Paolo Banchero, Benedict Mathurin and a war chest of picks over the next 3 years. There�s no doubt they�re on the way down and the Clippers will be hoping the lottery balls fall in their favour come the end of next season.

The Pistons have a similar story however the talent is still visible on their roster. They have Irving, Donovan Mitchell and a bunch of quality role players. They will be a good team but they have been a great team and that is the reason the survey suggest they will decline. Trading Bam AND Gobert means they will take a huge hit defensively this coming season and GM Sheed will have to work his magic to completely redefine their game plan over the summer.

 

A Tale of Two Conferences

Since the beginning of the league there has been a disparity in the strength of the conferences. The West has all 3 titles and every regular season record titles. 2021-22 was no different as the West took home the regular season record while the Blazers took the Championship. The also had the top 4 teams in terms of records, the Spurs, Blazers, Wolves and Grizzlies and one could argue they are the top 4 teams heading into the 2022-23 season. So why TF did the GMs vote for a 50-50 split on which conference would be stronger?

 

After gauging the reaction of the league, the responses fall in line with the interpretation of the question. Some GMs answered it looking top-to-bottom of each conference, noting the bottom feeders of the West being tanking easy-beats while others saw the question asking which conference will produce the highest standard/ be the most talented. Whichever way you look at the question, there�s no doubt that the league will be more competitive at the top this coming season.

 

Who will win the 2022-23 KIA MVP?

Denver�s Steph Curry took out the MVP for a second consecutive year and proved an unstoppable force, outpolling fellow stars Luka, Giannis, Lebron and Durant in 2021-22. The NSL world seems to be predicting a changing of the guard for the coming season with two clear favourites for the NSL Kia MVP.

Giannis Antetokounmpo headed the votes with half of the responses favouring him. He moves to San Antonio and will be the anchor of the team on both ends once surrounded by complimentary pieces. The Greek Freak has proven to be a handful in 2k and is the top-rated player going into the season as a 97 overall. The big question will be whether he is able to dominate the ball enough with the likes of Lebron and Harden as team mates throughout the year.

Luka Doncic is the East�s leading candidate for the MVP. He will take another jump this coming season and will no doubt see a bigger role in the Dallas offence to surely become one of the top 2 rated players in the engine. Luka�s will be in charge of the offense in Charlotte and GM Craig will get him all the touches he needs to ensure take over games. Receiving 23.1% of the vote, Luka is a favourite for many GMs to become the top-rated player in NSL world this coming season.

Other notable vote getters:
Steph Curry 7.7% and Jokic, Bam, LaMelo, Durant, Embiid all equal 3.8% (1 vote).

 

 

Who will win the 2022-23 Rookie of the Year?

Here�s a pie graph for the tankers, a little hope to run your eyes over before you log off for another 5 months. The Rookie of the Year is one of the harder awards to predict as Rookies can come into the game with weird ratings and tendencies. The best NBA rookie might not be in the top 5 NSL rookies due to position and skillset/tendencies, so this award can really be a tough one to predict.

A clear favourite has emerged in Paolo Banchero (61.5% of the vote). Paolo looks the best NBA rookie and combines skill and size to look the complete package in the NBA. He has a terrific role in NBA Orlando and will get as many touches as hen likes in NSL Clippers, meaning he will be a huge chance for the award. GM Andrew will be hoping he isn�t �too good� so he can make another run at the lottery next season.

The second favourite with 15.4% of the vote is athletic guard Jaden Ivey. He looks a future star in the making and has all the athletic ability every GM wants from their star guard. Ivey will be given a huge role in both the NBA and NSL as the face of the Detroit (NBA) and Utah (NSL) organisations. Ivey will run the show from the first game in Utah which will make his campaign for ROTY extremely fun to follow. Utah definitely won�t have much more to cheer about through the 2022-23 season� Until the lottery.

Other notable vote getters:
Jabari Smith, Keegan Murray, Jalen Duren, Shaeden Sharpe, Benedict Mathurin, Jaden Hardy- 3.8% (1 vote)

 

Who will win the 2022-23 Defensive Player of the Year?

The graph above looks like something a Grade Six student might produce for a last-minute homework effort. There�s typos, multiple columns with the same person and it�s generally hard to follow. The breakdown is basically this- 11 votes Gobert, 6 votes Giannis, 2 votes Embiid, McGee and Kawhi Leonard with one vote going to Bam and Robert Williams.

Gobert is the prototypical DPOY candidate, he�s long, athletic and is maxed out on all the defensive attributes. He is basically any of the lesser candidates on steroids. At the time of the vote, Gobert was on the Detroit Pistons with a similar outlook to previous years paired with fellow vote getter Bam Adebayo. Following the survey, GM Sheed moved out his defensive duo, sending them to the Toronto Raptors before GM Dylan split the dynamic duo, sending Gobert to the Minnesota Timberwolves. It�s hard to tell if the outlook in Minny is better or worse for Gobert�s DPOY case. He will likely share minutes with Jonas Valanciunas and will be on a deeper roster that could be more successful. With greater success comes less minutes due to blowouts and no real need to play. Analysis aside, Gobert will come in as the favourite to start the season and will be a huge chance to retain his award once again.

 

 

Who will win 6^th Man of the Year?

Recency bias hit the vote cards in the 6^th Man of the Year predictions as Scary Terry Rozier once again heads the votes with 9.2% of the overall vote. Terry will have a sizeable bench role in New Orleans as the primary scorer off the bench. He may not get as many shots this coming year, but there�s no doubt he is the best candidate for the award he has won in the past.

Joining Scary Terry at the top of the votes with 9.2% is newcomer Tyler Herro. He was the 6MOTY in the NBA last year and will likely come off the bench in a stacked Memphis team this coming season. Herro�s ratings will have caught up a little more this season after a terrific year last year and his 18 badges- primarily scoring badges, will have him catching fire for stretches of most games.

All other vote getters received 1 vote

 

Who will win Most Improved 2022-23?

Another poll that was responded to with an array of options, the Most Improved Award does tend to be a tricky one to predict. First, it�s hard to tell which players will get an updated prototype in the new version. Second, the algorithm for selecting candidates for the league to vote on seems somewhat bizarre, so you never know who will actually be in the mix. Third, it�s a semi-trash award in the NSL. So most GMs go ahead and vote for the NBA equivalent and players that should be in a good position for ratings boosts.

This year the GMs believed that Brunson, Ball and Bane- the 3Bs would be the most likely to turn the corner and become NSL elite. Tying with 3 votes each, Jalen Brunson, Desmon Bane and LaMelo Ball should all see sizeable roles in the coming season with new badges and significant ratings boosts in 2kland.

All other candidates received 1 vote.

 

GMOTY

There aren�t a whole lot of horses in this race but the leader might surprise you. Coming into the 2022-23 season, the GM�s consensus vote for the next GMOTY was GM Dylan of the Toronto Raptors. Dylan received 8 of the 26 votes- nearly one third of the vote! An incredible feat for a GM that has been at the helm of his franchise for about a month (at the time of voting). Dylan got to work quickly moving older stars to build around young star Zion Williamson, quickly assembling a talented and young Raptors team. He made some sensational deals, maybe one too many, and turned a roster absolutely loaded with assets into a young long-term contender. There�s no doubt he will have a serious case for GMOTY if voters can look past a GM jumping off a sinking ship and onto a shinier one�

Tying in 2^nd place with 4 votes (16%) was the defending GMOTY Ethan of the Wolves and mover and shaker GM Smokey. Both GMs will have a terrific case for the award if their teams bring the Ws which is almost a formality. Smokey�s team looks the team to beat in the East while Ethan looks stacked once again.

All 3 candidates have continued to improve their rosters and are active and great contributors to league culture. They will hard to split when it comes to award season.

Other notable vote getters:

GM Nels- 3 votes, GM Jmac- 2 votes, GM Wizkid and Leroy- 1 vote.

 

That concludes the predictions section of the GM Survey. We will be back with thorough analysis of the opinions of the GMs in the coming week.