Miami (33 - 32)

Expert Pick
100% ····················>< 0%

Detroit (27 - 38)

To Play In or not Play In?


The trade deadline has passed and like a lot of years, not too much really happened at the deadline. The league is proactive about trading all year round, and the deadline ends up serving as just a point to stop that rather than activate that! We have two Eastern teams, vying for a last minute Play In spot as the focus this week with the Heat holding a spot right now, and the Pistons 3 games outside the 10^th seed and looking to get a key win against someone who could topple out if they’re not careful! The Heat: The Heat came out solid to start the year, but then faltered a little before righting the ship in recent weeks, which is probably paired with further health gains knowing the Heat of the last few years. They went on a 5 game win streak in weeks 11 and 12, and have a 14-5 record over the last 4 and a half weeks which has buoyed them to a 31-31, .500, record which is a far nicer place to be that the 17-26 they were on at the time! This has meant that the play in spot they coveted has become a near lock to this point, despite it being “only” 5 games safe for now. But 5 games is a big divide when you’re talking the 10^th and 11^th seeds of a conference. The Heat are purring. They are now only 3 games behind the banged up 76ers for the 8^th seed and might yet gain a home court Play In game, possibly against the 76ers, if all things fall the right way. They have made some uncharacteristically large trades this year to bring in Derrick White and more recently packaged some of their Ben Simmons gains to bring in Lauri Markkanen, but both of those stars are out this week, joining Bilal Coulibaly on the sidelines and leaving he squad a little thin on the total talent level. The oddly reliable CJ is still here though, and is likely to be called upon to score big this week without the other options available. Kevin Porter is rumoured to be shifting into the starting SF spot too, and that kid is talented. The Pistons are going to present a problem this week as they have all the desire to win, so are the Heat ready? The Pistons: The Pistons made one of the bigger “just before trade deadline” trades this past week seeing Jalen Brunson head out of town which was probably motivated just as much by his recent injury as it was about the immense value they got for him. They started the year giving up Jalen Green, Anfernee Simons and picks for him, and ended the trade deadline by moving him for Trae Young and a couple of 1^st round picks which looks like a winning move really. The team was starved of ways forward and the extra assets are a welcomed thing to put Trae, an elite scorer despite his size and defensive limitations, with the core of young talent that includes Brandon Miller and Ausar Thompson, and the reaching his prime, Ivica Zubac. The team hasn’t really clicked most of this season with some key injuries along the way and some growing pains along the way, and of late they have literally gone the opposite of the Heat and are the team that gave up their Play In spot, so that the Heat could take it. They’re 4-12 over the last 4 weeks and it doesn’t get too much better in the couple of weeks before that, too, so maybe putting Trae into a showcase role and hoping, is going to be a catalyst for a late season spark? That needs to start with a win over the depleted Heat and then build from there as the free fall from the Celtics has now ended, and the banged up Heat and 76ers are 5 and 8 games away respectively. The task at hand is a tricky one, so let’s see how this comes off! The Projected Match-Ups: C: Jalen Duren Vs Ivica Zubac Duren is Pete’s prized big man but while he’s always going to be 2k friendly, he looks basically like an Andre Drummond, so retaining him might become a fun task if he doesn’t land that big extension that Drummond did after his rookie deal. 10 points, 15 rebounds, 1.5 steals and 1.4 blocks as a starter this year and he could go close to that here, except he’s got one of the paint beast bigs in Ivica Zubac against him. Zubac has been a monster all year with 11 points, 16 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 2 blocks per game, similar profile to Duren, yes? Could be a deciding factor who has more impact here. PF: Jarred Vanderbilt Vs Kyle Kuzma Vanderbilt is another Pete fav, and it’s easy to see why, and he’s even forced his mate Isaac out of the team now. He hasn’t played heaps, and only started 4 games at PF all year which saw 6 points, 7 rebounds and 1.5 steals per game. Probably mostly the same in this one and he’ll try and lockdown the offensive Kuzma he’s matched up on. Kuz has been in Detroit for a surprising 34 games now and started 25 of them. He’s averaged 16.5 points in 30 minutes with 6 rebounds and he’ll be asked to be that #2 to Trae down the stretch, especially with Miller out. This is an interesting opposite match up! SF: Kevin Porter Jr. Vs Ausar Thompson Porter I touted as a great FA pick up, and while he hasn’t gone bananas, I like to think I was right given he’s averaged a really solid number off the bench, especially at shooting guard. As a starter, he’s averaged 19 points a game but that was in only 4 games at SG, and not SF where he’s lining up today. He gets Thompson, too, who is big, long and defensive, so it could be a struggle for the 6’4 Porter. Thompson is as close to untradeable as they come, believe me, I’ve enquired! And he’s started every game this year averaging a solid 12 points, 6 rebounds and 3 assists as a defensive stopper that won’t force things much. I like this match up because they will be opposites, again, and will be interesting who comes out on top. SG: Keon Ellis Vs Dalano Banton Keon has played a number of roles for the Heat this year and starting SG has been about 1/3 of his time where he’s averaged 8 points, 2 rebounds and 2 assists, with a steal and a block per game as a role playing defensive stopper. He’s not going to go to Banton here you wouldn’t think, more likely Trae, and his success will be measured on how many missed FGs Trae has more than what he does on the boxscore. Like Ellis, Banton is filling the role player but with size here as a 6’8 combo guard. As a starter at SG he’s played 9 games for 5 points, 3 rebounds and 2 assists per game with 1 steal and 1.2 blocks, so he’s going to try and use his length to be disruptive to Miami. PG: CJ McCollum Vs Trae Young CJ has only started 4 games at PG this year and he averaged 29 points with 4 assists while doing so, but has been much more efficient at SG coming off the screens and with less self creation, I would guess. So we’ll see how that goes in this one. Maybe Ellis should have been the PG? Anyway, if he actually lines up on Trae, he won’t have to worry about anything bothering him, but that would seem unlikely. Trae on the other hand will likely also someone else defending him and he had a super rough week for his first in Detroit. Only 15 points, 3 rebounds and 5 assists which was way down on his OKC time and it’s likely that Sheed just needs to figure out which playbook gets him the most looks, because he should take teams apart, especially in this engine. Bench V Bench: Mason Plumlee, Jeff Dowtin, Kel el Ware, Rob Dillingham, Buddy Hield Vs Dennis Schroder, Jalen Wilson, Gui Santos, Mouhamed Gueye, Colby Jones Both The size of Miami on the bench is going to be important. Plumlee and Ware should help them get ascendency over the rebounds, even if the starting line up is relatively similar, and the supporting guards are all looking the goods this year. The Pistons on the other hand have Dennis whom will get his own, and the rest is basically making up the minutes.

The trade deadline has passed and like a lot of years, not too much really happened at the deadline. The league is proactive about trading all year round, and the deadline ends up serving as just a point to stop that rather than activate that! We have two Eastern teams, vying for a last minute Play In spot as the focus this week with the Heat holding a spot right now, and the Pistons 3 games outside the 10^th seed and looking to get a key win against someone who could topple out if they’re not careful!

The Heat:

The Heat came out solid to start the year, but then faltered a little before righting the ship in recent weeks, which is probably paired with further health gains knowing the Heat of the last few years. They went on a 5 game win streak in weeks 11 and 12, and have a 14-5 record over the last 4 and a half weeks which has buoyed them to a 31-31, .500, record which is a far nicer place to be that the 17-26 they were on at the time! This has meant that the play in spot they coveted has become a near lock to this point, despite it being “only” 5 games safe for now. But 5 games is a big divide when you’re talking the 10^th and 11^th seeds of a conference. The Heat are purring. They are now only 3 games behind the banged up 76ers for the 8^th seed and might yet gain a home court Play In game, possibly against the 76ers, if all things fall the right way. They have made some uncharacteristically large trades this year to bring in Derrick White and more recently packaged some of their Ben Simmons gains to bring in Lauri Markkanen, but both of those stars are out this week, joining Bilal Coulibaly on the sidelines and leaving he squad a little thin on the total talent level. The oddly reliable CJ is still here though, and is likely to be called upon to score big this week without the other options available. Kevin Porter is rumoured to be shifting into the starting SF spot too, and that kid is talented. The Pistons are going to present a problem this week as they have all the desire to win, so are the Heat ready?

The Pistons:

The Pistons made one of the bigger “just before trade deadline” trades this past week seeing Jalen Brunson head out of town which was probably motivated just as much by his recent injury as it was about the immense value they got for him. They started the year giving up Jalen Green, Anfernee Simons and picks for him, and ended the trade deadline by moving him for Trae Young and a couple of 1^st round picks which looks like a winning move really. The team was starved of ways forward and the extra assets are a welcomed thing to put Trae, an elite scorer despite his size and defensive limitations, with the core of young talent that includes Brandon Miller and Ausar Thompson, and the reaching his prime, Ivica Zubac. The team hasn’t really clicked most of this season with some key injuries along the way and some growing pains along the way, and of late they have literally gone the opposite of the Heat and are the team that gave up their Play In spot, so that the Heat could take it. They’re 4-12 over the last 4 weeks and it doesn’t get too much better in the couple of weeks before that, too, so maybe putting Trae into a showcase role and hoping, is going to be a catalyst for a late season spark? That needs to start with a win over the depleted Heat and then build from there as the free fall from the Celtics has now ended, and the banged up Heat and 76ers are 5 and 8 games away respectively. The task at hand is a tricky one, so let’s see how this comes off!

The Projected Match-Ups:

C: Jalen Duren Vs Ivica Zubac

Duren is Pete’s prized big man but while he’s always going to be 2k friendly, he looks basically like an Andre Drummond, so retaining him might become a fun task if he doesn’t land that big extension that Drummond did after his rookie deal. 10 points, 15 rebounds, 1.5 steals and 1.4 blocks as a starter this year and he could go close to that here, except he’s got one of the paint beast bigs in Ivica Zubac against him. Zubac has been a monster all year with 11 points, 16 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 2 blocks per game, similar profile to Duren, yes? Could be a deciding factor who has more impact here.

PF: Jarred Vanderbilt Vs Kyle Kuzma

Vanderbilt is another Pete fav, and it’s easy to see why, and he’s even forced his mate Isaac out of the team now. He hasn’t played heaps, and only started 4 games at PF all year which saw 6 points, 7 rebounds and 1.5 steals per game. Probably mostly the same in this one and he’ll try and lockdown the offensive Kuzma he’s matched up on. Kuz has been in Detroit for a surprising 34 games now and started 25 of them. He’s averaged 16.5 points in 30 minutes with 6 rebounds and he’ll be asked to be that #2 to Trae down the stretch, especially with Miller out. This is an interesting opposite match up!

SF: Kevin Porter Jr. Vs Ausar Thompson

Porter I touted as a great FA pick up, and while he hasn’t gone bananas, I like to think I was right given he’s averaged a really solid number off the bench, especially at shooting guard. As a starter, he’s averaged 19 points a game but that was in only 4 games at SG, and not SF where he’s lining up today. He gets Thompson, too, who is big, long and defensive, so it could be a struggle for the 6’4 Porter. Thompson is as close to untradeable as they come, believe me, I’ve enquired! And he’s started every game this year averaging a solid 12 points, 6 rebounds and 3 assists as a defensive stopper that won’t force things much. I like this match up because they will be opposites, again, and will be interesting who comes out on top.

SG: Keon Ellis Vs Dalano Banton

Keon has played a number of roles for the Heat this year and starting SG has been about 1/3 of his time where he’s averaged 8 points, 2 rebounds and 2 assists, with a steal and a block per game as a role playing defensive stopper. He’s not going to go to Banton here you wouldn’t think, more likely Trae, and his success will be measured on how many missed FGs Trae has more than what he does on the boxscore. Like Ellis, Banton is filling the role player but with size here as a 6’8 combo guard. As a starter at SG he’s played 9 games for 5 points, 3 rebounds and 2 assists per game with 1 steal and 1.2 blocks, so he’s going to try and use his length to be disruptive to Miami.

PG: CJ McCollum Vs Trae Young

CJ has only started 4 games at PG this year and he averaged 29 points with 4 assists while doing so, but has been much more efficient at SG coming off the screens and with less self creation, I would guess. So we’ll see how that goes in this one. Maybe Ellis should have been the PG? Anyway, if he actually lines up on Trae, he won’t have to worry about anything bothering him, but that would seem unlikely. Trae on the other hand will likely also someone else defending him and he had a super rough week for his first in Detroit. Only 15 points, 3 rebounds and 5 assists which was way down on his OKC time and it’s likely that Sheed just needs to figure out which playbook gets him the most looks, because he should take teams apart, especially in this engine.

Bench V Bench:

Mason Plumlee, Jeff Dowtin, Kel el Ware, Rob Dillingham, Buddy Hield
Vs
Dennis Schroder, Jalen Wilson, Gui Santos, Mouhamed Gueye, Colby Jones

Both The size of Miami on the bench is going to be important. Plumlee and Ware should help them get ascendency over the rebounds, even if the starting line up is relatively similar, and the supporting guards are all looking the goods this year. The Pistons on the other hand have Dennis whom will get his own, and the rest is basically making up the minutes.

Heat Star

C.J. McCollum
CJ has been a beast all year in whatever role he has been asked to play, which has been off the bench for the most part, and successfully. This week he’s the #1 go to guy and oddly, that’s not always a good thing for him. I think he gets it together though and in the battle for “who will actually score”, CJ will win the day and be the most important player on the Heat to do so.

PPG 25.1

RPG 2.8

APG 2.5

SPG 0.5

BPG 0.4

FPG 1.5

TPG 1.3

PPG 27.6

RPG 3.2

APG 6.3

SPG 0.9

BPG 0.2

FPG 1.9

TPG 2.5

Pistons Star

Trae Young
Trae is new in town, but with a team so lacking in overall firepower, he stands as the most important player for the Pistons and he needs to find a way to get himself into spots to score, unlike what he did last week. 15 points down from 29 a game in OKC is not going to get anyone results, and it’s going to be a matter of score or why are you there for the little man who doesn’t do much else.

X-Factor
- While I’d like to point at what might be the most epic battle on the court in this one, which is Duren V Zubac, for the Xfactor being, who of these two has the bigger game, gets the results, I think it’s actually more down to the Pistons coaching staff. As mentioned above, if they can’t find a way to get Trae into better spots for him to score, and he puts up last weeks numbers on last weeks efficiency, then it’s not going to matter much who gets the rest of the ascendency.

X-Factor

- While I’d like to point at what might be the most epic battle on the court in this one, which is Duren V Zubac, for the Xfactor being, who of these two has the bigger game, gets the results, I think it’s actually more down to the Pistons coaching staff. As mentioned above, if they can’t find a way to get Trae into better spots for him to score, and he puts up last weeks numbers on last weeks efficiency, then it’s not going to matter much who gets the rest of the ascendency.

Injury Report
Injured Players: Brandon Miller (Hip/Ankle/Wrist) - 45 NBA Games missed this season Kenyon Martin Jr. (Foot/Elbow) - 25 NBA Games missed this season Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Personal/Knee/Rest) - 4 NBA Games missed this season	Injured Players: Jordan Miller (Finger/Hip) - 6 NBA Games missed this season Bilal Coulibaly (Mouth/Groin/Hamstring) - 9 NBA Games missed this season Derrick White (Foot/Illness/Shin/Knee) - 4 NBA Games missed this season Lauri Markkanen (Back/Personal/Injury Management) - 21 NBA Games missed this season Returning Players: Kel el Ware (returning from Illness/Foot/Knee) - 9 NBA Games missed this season C.J. McCollum (returning from Adductor/Personal/Rest) - 16 NBA Games missed this season

Injury Report

Injured Players:
Brandon Miller (Hip/Ankle/Wrist) - 45 NBA Games missed this season
Kenyon Martin Jr. (Foot/Elbow) - 25 NBA Games missed this season
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Personal/Knee/Rest) - 4 NBA Games missed this season

Injured Players:
Jordan Miller (Finger/Hip) - 6 NBA Games missed this season
Bilal Coulibaly (Mouth/Groin/Hamstring) - 9 NBA Games missed this season
Derrick White (Foot/Illness/Shin/Knee) - 4 NBA Games missed this season
Lauri Markkanen (Back/Personal/Injury Management) - 21 NBA Games missed this season

Returning Players:
Kel el Ware (returning from Illness/Foot/Knee) - 9 NBA Games missed this season
C.J. McCollum (returning from Adductor/Personal/Rest) - 16 NBA Games missed this season

Prediction
Head to Head Prediction: This one I feel would be much more strongly in the Heat’s favour if they were healthy, but you could say that about any team any time, of course. Even in this depleted line up, I think they should get the job done if the Pistons play the way they did last week and don’t try to, and/or find, a way to unluck OKC Trae. 15 points from Trae is not going to cut it for a win. Heat by 9.

Prediction

Head to Head Prediction:

This one I feel would be much more strongly in the Heat’s favour if they were healthy, but you could say that about any team any time, of course. Even in this depleted line up, I think they should get the job done if the Pistons play the way they did last week and don’t try to, and/or find, a way to unluck OKC Trae. 15 points from Trae is not going to cut it for a win.

Heat by 9.

		Comments (1)
pistolpk 03/25 05:19 am	Thanks heaps for the write-up. Good luck Sheed.

	CLE	52
	NO	50

	NY	70
	TOR	74

	GS	103
	SA	104

	DAL	115
	LAC	97

	CHI	115
	SAC	107