Description of Rating-based Ranking Categories
The Rating-based rankings are the rankings of which take into account the ratings of your players. So the higher the ability/quality of your players, the rankings will reflect that.
Essentially the Ratings-based rankings tell you what teams look like on paper (whereas the Stats-based ranking more so tells you how teams play in the game; more factual). The Ratings-based rankings can be handy for team scouting (whether it be for your own team or other teams), aswell as learning about the game. For example, if you notice that Team A are winning 80% of their games and you want to know why, then you can take a look at how they're rated on paper. Or if you find that your team wins against some teams but not others, perhaps the Ratings-based rankings can help you find out why. What's the shape of their team? Are they an athletic team? Are they a shooting team? Are they defensive? Offensive? Both? Is rebounding their forte? Do they have intangible & energetic vitality-based ratings? Is it their scoring? Or maybe you're trying to figure out a good coach profile setting for your own team. The Ratings-based rankings will assist you in understanding the "shape" of any team.
The formula for the rankings is a bit complicated. But simply put - the Ratings-based rankings take into account the first 10 players on your roster: the starting 5, and then the first 5 players on your bench. Your starting 5 will weigh more heavily on the results of your rankings, however the bench DO contribute too, and depth will reflect on the rankings. The player ratings are split up into categories: Offense, Defense, Rebounding, Shooting, Scoring, Physicals, and Energy.
- The Offense ranking represents the team's ability to run an efficient offense, and takes into account the following player ratings: Ball handling, Off-hand dribbling, Ball security, Passing, Hands, and Offensive awareness * 1.5.
- The Defense ranking represents the team's defensive abilities (obviously), and takes into account the following player ratings: Defensive low-post, Blocking, Stealing, Defensive awareness, and On-ball defense.
- The Rebounding ranking represents the team's rebounding abilities (obviously also), and takes into account the following player ratings: Offensive rebounding, and Defensive rebounding.
- The Shooting ranking represents a team's shooting touch from all over the court, and takes into account the following player ratings: Close shooting, Mid-range shooting, 3-Point shooting * 2, Freethrow shooting, and Low-post shooting.
- The Scoring ranking represents a team's scoring prowess and finishing abilities, and takes into account the following player ratings: Inside shooting, Layup, Dunk, Standing dunk, Shot in traffic, Shot off dribble, and Offensive low-post.
- The Physicals ranking represents a team's physical attributes and athletic abilities, and takes into account the following player ratings: Speed, Vertical, Quickness, Strength, Height, and Stamina * 0.5.
- The Energy ranking represents the team's vigor and will to win. It represents the energetic charge that runs through the team, and takes into account the following player ratings: Hustle, Offensive clutch, Defensive clutch, Stamina * 0.5, Emotion * 0.1, and Consistency."
Description of Stats-based Ranking Categories
- Overall (Expected Win % (aka 'ExpW%'))
- Offense (Offensive Efficiency (aka 'OEff'))
- Defense (Defensive Efficiency (aka 'DEff'))
- Shooting (Effective FG% (aka 'eFG%'))
- Turnovers (Turnovers per 100 possessions (aka 'TOp'))
- Rebounding (Rebound Percentage (aka 'Reb%'))
- Freethrows (Freethrows made per FGs attempted (aka 'FTp'))
- Pace (Average of offensive and defensive possesions per game (PACE))
Variables used:
- POSS: Estimated team Possessions per game. Possessions are, without a doubt, the most important aspect about basketball. The basic fundamental aim of the game of basketball is to score more than the other team to win. Without possession, you cannot score. Simple. All of the complicated intricacies and abilities of basketball boil down to this exact simple truth. In attempting to score, you lose possession until it is regained. Therefore creating a risk factor. A missed shot is a wasted possession. A turnover is a wasted possession. An offensive rebound is a regained possession. Thus why ability and efficiency is so important. When the opposing team has possession, the aim becomes stopping them from scoring and regaining possession. Thus why defense is so important. Why again? Because without possession, you cannot score. And without scoring, you cannot win. To be able to accurately estimate team possessions opens up the whole world of advanced stats. Definitively, a possession is the period of play between when one team gains control of the ball and when the other team gains control of the ball. A possession ends when a team gives the ball to the other team, usually through a score, a turnover, or a missed shot recovered by the defense. POSS needs to be recorded for OEff, TOp, Pace, and ExpW% to be listed. A possession is defined by the following formula: POSS= FGA+TO-Oreb+(FT*0.44)
- OppPOSS: Estimated opposition possesions per game. The opponents POSS needs to be recorded too for DeFF, Pace and ExpW% to be listed. The formula is the same as POSS except recorded from the opponent. OppPOSS= OppFGA+OppTO-OppOreb+(OppFT*0.44)
Output cagtegories
- OEff (Offense):
Offensive Efficiency. Points scored per 100 possessions. When looking at
team stats it’s important to understand that some teams
play faster than others which skews their per game stats. Faster paced
teams (i.e. NBA Suns, Warrios) will get more chances to score per game
than a slower paced team (i.e. NBA Pistons, Spurs), solely because they have
more opportunities. This makes Team PPG and Opposition PPG a poor
indicator of a team's offense/defense.
By using points per possession, we’re looking at how many points a team scores when they have the ball on offense. This is called offensive efficiency or offensive rating, and is measured in points per 100 possessions. Basically offensive efficiency answers the question “if this team had the ball 100 times, how many points would it score?”.
An Example Why: In 2006, Portland ranked 18th in points allowed per game, which means they should have been slightly worse than average. However they finished a paltry 21-61 that year. Their defense wasn’t adequately measured by points allowed per game, because they played at the league’s third slowest pace. Ranked by defensive efficiency they were 29th, which would make their 21 win season more understandable. OEff is the purest stat to rate and rank team offensive performance accurately.
The formula is: OEff= TeamPts*100/POSS - DEff (Defense):
Defensive Efficiency (or Defensive Rating). Similar to OEff, we can rate
defenses by calculating how many points a team
allows per possession, called defensive efficiency or defensive rating.
The formula is: DEff= OppPts*100/OppPOSS. - eFG% (Shooting) :
Effective FG%. eFG% is better than FG% because FG% doesn’t account for
the scoring bonus in a three point shot, which is a lower percentage shot. A
team may shoot a lower FG% than another team, but may taking more
difficult shots from behind the arch and scoring more points doing so.
Effective field goal percentage (eFG%) compensates properly for the three pointer. To use a player as an example: Kyle Korver’s career FG% (as of 2007) is a lowly 41.3%. If FG% rates a good shooter like Korver so poorly, then it’s obviously not a good stat to use. So replace FG% with eFG% (effective field goal percentage), which compensates for the extra point in a three point shot. Korver’s eFG% is a more robust 53.6%. Players like Kevin Martin, Jason Kapono, Manu Ginobili, and Shawn Marion come to mind as players who are misrepresented by FG%.
The formula is: eFG%= (FGM+0.5*3pM)/FGA - TOp (Turnovers):
Turnovers per 100 possessions. Like points, turnovers are measured per
possession (how many times you cough the ball up when you have it). Turnovers
are a crucial stat to note, as a turnover means that you turn possession
over to the other team.
The formula is: TOp= TO*100/POSS - Reb% (Rebounding) :
Rebounding percentage. Rebounding is measured by percentage of missed
shots recovered. This is
so teams that shoot poorly (have lots of misses to recover) are judged
on an even platform with teams that can shoot.
The formula is: Reb%= Reb/(Reb+OppReb) - FTp (Free Throws) :
Free throws made per field goals attempted. Measures how often a team gets
to line, and takes into account making the FTs. The biggest aspect of
"free throws" is actually
attempting them, not making them. Teams that get to the line more are
more effective than teams that make a higher percentage of their free
throws. Game-by-game exceptions can definitely exist - there are plenty
of games that are lost by a team missing its foul shots - but over the
long haul, just getting to the line frequently wins a lot more games
than missing a few freebies will lose. Since actually getting fouled is
the more variable skill than making foul shots, you can measure this skill as FTA/FGA. But I often prefer to make some account for ability to make the
foul shots, too, and use FTM/FGA. It's 100*FTM/FGA so it would fit in with the rest of the numbers.
The formula is: FTp= 100*FTM/FGA - Pace :
Pace is measured by an average of team possessions and opponent
possessions. Pace is not an measurement of a team's ability. It is an indicator of
how fast a team plays.
Pace= (POSS+OppPOSS)/2 - ExpW% (Overall) :
Expected Win %. Expected Win % is based on the team's offensive and
defensive efficiency, and is a great way to rank the team's overall ability.
The formula is: ExpW%= (OEff^14/(OEff^14 + DEff^14))